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This research proposes a novel risk assessment model to elucidate the risk propagation process of industrial safety accidents triggered by natural disasters (Natech), identifies key factors influencing urban carrying capacity and mitigates uncertainties and subjectivity due to data scarcity in Natech risk assessment.

Utilizing disaster chain theory and Bayesian network (BN), we describe the cascading effects of Natechs, identifying critical nodes of urban system failure. Then we propose an urban carrying capacity assessment method using the coefficient of variation and cloud BN, constructing an indicator system for infrastructure, population and environmental carrying capacity. The model determines interval values of assessment indicators and weights missing data nodes using the coefficient of variation and the cloud model. A case study using data from the Pearl River Delta region validates the model.

(1) Urban development in the Pearl River Delta relies heavily on population carrying capacity. (2) The region’s social development model struggles to cope with rapid industrial growth. (3) There is a significant disparity in carrying capacity among cities, with some trends contrary to urban development. (4) The Cloud BN outperforms the classical Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) gate fuzzy method in describing real-world fuzzy and random situations.

The present research proposes a novel framework for evaluating the urban carrying capacity of industrial areas in the face of Natechs. By developing a BN risk assessment model that integrates cloud models, the research addresses the issue of scarce objective data and reduces the subjectivity inherent in previous studies that heavily relied on expert opinions. The results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the classical fuzzy BNs.

Collaborative emission reduction among supply chain members has emerged as a new trend to achieve climate neutrality goals and meet consumers’ low-carbon preferences. However, carbon information asymmetry and consumer mistrust represent significant obstacles. This paper investigates the value of blockchain technology (BCT) in solving the above issues.

A low-carbon supply chain consisting of one supplier and one manufacturer is examined. This study discusses three scenarios: non-adoption BCT, adoption BCT without sharing the supplier’s carbon emission reduction (CER) information and adoption BCT with sharing the supplier’s CER information. We analyze the optimal decisions of the supplier and the manufacturer through the Stackelberg game, identify the conditions in which the supplier and manufacturer adopt BCT and share information from the perspectives of economic and environmental performance.

The results show that adopting BCT benefits supply chain members, even if they do not share CER information through BCT. Furthermore, when the supplier’s CER efficiency is low, the manufacturer prefers that the supplier share this information. Counterintuitively, the supplier will only share CER information through BCT when the CER efficiencies of both the supplier and manufacturer are comparable. This diverges from the findings of existing studies, as the CER investments of the supplier and the manufacturer in this study are interdependent. In addition, despite the high energy consumption associated with BCT, the supplier and manufacturer embrace its adoption and share CER information for the sake of environmental benefits.

The firms in low-carbon supply chains can adopt BCT to improve consumers’ trust. Furthermore, if the CER efficiencies of the firms are low, they should share CER information through BCT. Nonetheless, a lower unit usage cost of BCT is the precondition.

This paper makes the first move to discuss BCT adoption and BCT-supported information sharing for collaborative emission reduction in supply chains while considering the transparency and high consumption of BCT.