Search results

Stock markets are essential for households for wealth creation and for firms for raising financial resources for capacity expansion and growth. Market participants, therefore, need an understanding of stock price movements. Stock market indices and individual stock prices reflect the macroeconomic environment and are subject to external and internal shocks. It is important to disentangle the impact of macroeconomic shocks, market uncertainty and speculative elements and examine them separately for prediction. To aid households, firms and policymakers, the paper proposes a granular decomposition-based prediction framework for different time periods in India, characterized by different market states with varying degrees of uncertainty.

Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and fuzzy-C-means (FCM) clustering algorithms are used to decompose stock prices into short, medium and long-run components. Multiverse optimization (MVO) is used to combine extreme gradient boosting regression (XGBR), Facebook Prophet and support vector regression (SVR) for forecasting. Application of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) helps identify feature contributions.

We find that historic volatility, expected market uncertainty, oscillators and macroeconomic variables explain different components of stock prices and their impact varies with the industry and the market state. The proposed framework yields efficient predictions even during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war period. Efficiency measures indicate the robustness of the approach. Findings suggest that large-cap stocks are relatively more predictable.

The paper is on Indian stock markets. Future work will extend it to other stock markets and other financial products.

The proposed methodology will be of practical use for traders, fund managers and financial advisors. Policymakers may find it useful for assessing the impact of macroeconomic shocks and reducing market volatility.

Development of a granular decomposition-based forecasting framework and separating the effects of explanatory variables in different time scales and macroeconomic periods.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of various decision-making approaches and government subsidies on supply chain performance, aiming to enhance the profits of disposal firms and retailers as well as to improve social welfare.

In this paper, a two-echelon biomass supply chain composed of a disposal firm and a retailer is developed. Firstly, considering the effects of government subsidies, we analyze biofuels prices, corporate social responsibility levels, social welfare and supply chain profitability under centralized and decentralized decision-making scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, we assess how subsidies influence pricing, market participation, profitability and social welfare. Secondly, we propose a revenue sharing–cost sharing contract to enhance the profits of the disposal firm and retailer. Thirdly, we extend the supply chain to a disposal firm and two retailers and explore the impact of competition intensity on corporate decision-making behavior. Finally, numerical analysis is conducted by taking one biomass energy firm as an example to support the results.

Our research finds that (1) Equilibrium strategies under the centralized decision-making scenario are greater than those under the decentralized decision-making scenario. Centralized decision-making can increase market demand and consumer surplus. (2) Government subsidies can promote corporate social responsibility levels, despite causing a slight increase in retail price for biofuels. When market competition intensifies, companies usually reduce their investment in CSR, and this trend is particularly pronounced in the absence of subsidies. (3) In both the decentralized and the centralized decision-making scenarios, increasing conversion rates and the CSR coefficient can significantly increase the overall profitability and social welfare.

A three-echelon biomass supply chain involving collection station, disposal firm and retailer can be studied in the future.

By examining the effects of subsidies on CSR engagement and market outcomes, our study contributes valuable insights into policy design for promoting sustainable practices in biomass industries.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the interplay between fiscal dominance and monetary policy in South Africa from 1960 to 2023.

The study employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) medel to analyze the relationship between fiscal dominance and monetary policy. Short-term and long-term shocks of government borrowing and deficits are examined to understand their impact on inflation dynamics.

Fiscal dominance has a significant effect both in the short and long run. There is evidence that government debt and deficits increase inflation, overriding the effects of monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability. On the other hand, the study reveals that money supply shocks have a greater effect in reducing fiscal dominance compared to interest rate shocks. The variance movement on inflation is significantly explained by government debt and deficits. This emphasizes the persistence of inflationary pressures associated with fiscal dominance, highlighting the importance of effective policy interventions to mitigate inflationary risks.

This study contributes to the existing literature by providing insights into the dynamics of fiscal dominance in South Africa. Moreover, this study extends the theoretical framework of the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) and the government budget constraint. This study contributes valuable insights into the dynamics of fiscal dominance in South Africa and offers guidance for policymakers in formulating strategies to safeguard economic stability.

To assess South Africa’s (SA’s) citrus export competitiveness in the global market and identify its macroeconomic drivers.

The Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) index is employed to measure export competitiveness. An ARDL-EC model is then estimated to identify the macroeconomic determinants of SA’s citrus export competitiveness.

SA’s citrus export competitiveness declined before the mid-1990s and rose thereafter. On balance, the country improved from the fourth to the second most competitive citrus exporter. A long-run relationship was established between the NRCA scores and the real exchange rate and real GDP per capita growth rate. The export price exerted a positive short-run influence on citrus export competitiveness. The rise in SA’s citrus export competitiveness since the mid-1990s was mainly driven by the rising citrus export price and real exchange rate depreciation.

Future research could explore the determinants of SA’s export competitiveness using panel gravity models of bilateral trade flows to isolate the impact of macroeconomic variables and trade restricting/enhancing policies of importing countries.

The article employs the NRCA index, which can measure comparative advantage across space and over time. It is the first to econometrically estimate the macroeconomic determinants of citrus export competitiveness in SA. Application of the ARDL-EC framework yields both short- and long-run effects of macroeconomic variables on export competitiveness.

The new customer churn prediction (CCP) utilizing deep learning is developed in this work. Initially, the data are collected from the WSDM-KKBox’s churn prediction challenge dataset. Here, the time-varying data and the static data are aggregated, and then the statistic features and deep features with the aid of statistical measures and “Visual Geometry Group 16 (VGG16)”, accordingly, and the features are considered as feature 1 and feature 2. Further, both features are forwarded to the weighted feature fusion phase, where the modified exploration of driving training-based optimization (ME-DTBO) is used for attaining the fused features. It is then given to the optimized and ensemble-based dilated deep learning (OEDDL) model, which is “Temporal Context Networks (DTCN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM)”, where the optimization is performed with the aid of ME-DTBO model. Finally, the predicted outcomes are attained and assimilated over other classical models.

The features are forwarded to the weighted feature fusion phase, where the ME-DTBO is used for attaining the fused features. It is then given to the OEDDL model, which is “DTCN, RNN, and LSTM”, where the optimization is performed with the aid of the ME-DTBO model.

The accuracy of the implemented CCP system was raised by 54.5% of RNN, 56.3% of deep neural network (DNN), 58.1% of LSTM and 60% of RNN + DTCN + LSTM correspondingly when the learning percentage is 55.

The proposed CCP framework using the proposed ME-DTBO and OEDDL is accurate and enhances the prediction performance.

This paper aims to study the interplay between a risk-averse national brand manufacturer's (NBM) selling mode decision and a risk-neutral e-platform's private brand (PB) introduction decision.

A game theory model is used to solve selling mode decision, that is whether transform the selling mode from the wholesale mode to the marketplace mode, and PB introduction decision, that is, whether introduce the PB.

The results show that for the NBM, under certain condition, the NBM's selling mode decision is not affected by the e-platform's PB introduction decision. High revenue-sharing rate is conducive only when the difference in consumer preference between the PB and the national brand (NB) is small. The NBM's risk aversion will improve the applicability of the marketplace mode. For the e-platform, high PB preference of consumers and risk-averse behavior of the NBM is not conducive to PB introduction. For the supply chain, scenarios that the NB monopolizes the market under the wholesale mode and PB introduction under the marketplace mode should be prevented. PB introduction under the wholesale mode will become the only equilibrium with the increase of risk aversion of the NBM. Finally, the authors extend the scenario that consumers prefer the PB and the e-platform is risk-averse enterprise and find that PB introduction under the wholesale mode is detrimental to the NBM but beneficial to the supply chain. The impact of consumers' PB preference on the e-platform's PB introduction is opposite to the basic model. The impact of the e-platform's risk aversion on game equilibrium is opposite to that of the NBM's risk aversion.

This paper is first to study selling mode decision and PB introduction decision when considering enterprises' risk-averse attitude.

The shadow economy (SE) has been a serious issue with varied dimensions in all countries that significantly affect economic growth. Therefore, all countries have made an effort to tackle the SE by pursuing several measures. This study aims to investigate the impact of financial markets (stock and bond) in reducing the SE while considering the role of country risk (political, economic and financial) in N-11 countries.

The study employed first-generation methodological techniques, including a unit root test to identify stationarity in the series, a panel cointegration test and panel autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) to estimate long-run and short-run relationships. Finally, the Granger causality is applied to determine the direction of the causal relationship.

The study explored that country risk factors are crucial in reducing the size of the SE. Moreover, the significant moderating role of country risk factors in the financial market development and SE nexus suggests that by controlling the country's risk, financial market development can negatively affect the SE.

Due to the availability of data, the study used data, ranging from 1995 to 2015, because the tax burden data is available from 1995 while the maximum data for the SE is available till 2015, using Medina and Schneider's (2019) data estimates for the SE.

The previous studies have focused explicitly on the role of financial institutions' development in the SE. To the best of the author's knowledge, no previous study is attempted to investigate the role of financial markets (bonds and stock) in the size of the SE. Furthermore, previous studies have ignored the important role of country risk factors in the size of the SE. This study investigates the impact of country risk on the SE and the moderating role of country risk in the development of financial markets and the SE nexus.

Online portfolio selection sequentially allocates wealth among a set of assets and aims to maximize the investor’s cumulative return in the long run. Various existing algorithms in the finance and accounting area adopt an indirect approach to exploit one asset characteristic through the channel of assets’ expected return and thus cannot fully leverage the power of various asset characteristics found in the literature. This study aims to propose new algorithms to overcome this issue to enhance investment performance.

We propose a parameterized portfolio selection (PPS) framework, which directly incorporates multiple asset characteristics into portfolio weights. This framework can update parameters timely based on final performance without intermediate steps and produce efficient portfolios. We further append L1 regularization to constrain the number of active asset characteristics. Solving the PPS formulation numerically, we design two online portfolio selection (OLPS) algorithms via gradient descent and alternating direction method of multipliers.

Empirical results on five real market datasets show that the proposed algorithms outperform the state of the arts in cumulative returns, Sharpe ratios, winning ratios, etc. Besides, short-term characteristics are more important than long-term characteristics, and the highest return category is the most important characteristic to improve portfolio performance.

The proposed PPS algorithms are new end-to-end online learning approaches, which directly optimize portfolios by asset characteristics. Such approaches thus differ from existing studies, which first predict returns and then optimize portfolios. This paper provides a new algorithmic framework for investors’ OLPS.

Over the last 2 decades, supply chain sustainability research has become a highly dynamic and fruitful study area. This field has garnered significant attention due to its potential to reshape decision-making processes within supply chains. At the same time, the practical side of supply chain operations remains intensely competitive in today’s business landscape. Furthermore, the current academic research aims to outline effective strategies for achieving sustainability across supply chains, particularly in the manufacturing sector. In response to these challenges, this research has conducted an integrated multi-criteria decision-making approach to evaluate sustainable supply chain performance from the triple bottom line perspective, including financial, environmental, and social performance.

The initial stage involves selecting the crucial criteria (short-term and long-term) and alternatives for sustainable supply chain performance (SSCP) from experts and conducting an in-depth literature review. Initially, there were 17 criteria, but after a pilot test with co-authors and online discussions with experts, the number of criteria was subsequently reduced to 9. In the second phase, the Best-Worst Method (BWM) was applied to rank and prioritize the criteria. The third and final stage examined the causal relationship between the identified criteria, utilizing the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique.

Based on BWM analysis results, the top three criteria in terms of prominence are: (1) return on investment (ROI), (2) product quality, and (3) manufacturing lead time. Out of the three alternatives, financial performance (FP) is the most crucial dimension for SSCP, followed by environmental performance (ENP) and social performance (SP). On the other hand, the DEMATEL approach showed that work health and safety (short-term criterion), asset utilization (long-term criterion), energy consumption (long-term criterion), waste disposal (long-term criterion), manufacturing lead time (short-term criterion), and on-time delivery (short-term criterion) are categorized within the cause group, while criteria such as return on investment (ROI) (long-term criterion), customer-service level (short-term criterion), and product quality (long-term criterion) fall into the effect group.

The proposed study has certain drawbacks that pave the way for future research directions. First, it is worth noting the need for a larger sample size to ensure the reliability of results, the potential inclusion of additional criteria to enhance the assessment of sustainability performance, and the consideration of a qualitative approach to gain deeper insights into the outcomes. In addition, fuzziness in qualitative subjective perception could be imperative when collecting data to ensure its reliability, as translating experts’ perceptions into exact numerical values can be challenging because human perceptions often carry elements of uncertainty or vagueness. Therefore, fuzzy integrated MCDM frameworks are better suited for future research to handle the uncertainties involved in human perceptions, making it a more appropriate approach for decision-making in scenarios where traditional MCDM methods may prove insufficient.

The proposed framework will enable decision-makers to gain deeper insights into how various decision criteria impact SSCP, thus providing a comprehensive evaluation of SSCP that considers multiple dimensions, such as financial, environmental, and social performance within the manufacturing sector.

The proposed study is the first empirical study to integrate both BWM and DEMATEL approaches to evaluate sustainable supply chain performance in the manufacturing context.

With burgeoning interest in the low-altitude economy, applications of long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicles (LE-UAVs) have increased in remote logistics distribution. Given LE-UAVs’ advantages of wide coverage, strong versatility and low cost, in addition to logistics distribution, they are widely used in military reconnaissance, communication relay, disaster monitoring and other activities. With limited autonomous intelligence, LE-UAVs require regular periodic and non-periodic control from ground control resources (GCRs) during flights and mission execution. However, the lack of GCRs significantly restricts the applications of LE-UAVs in parallel.

We consider the constraints of GCRs, investigating an integrated optimization problem of multi-LE-UAV mission planning and GCR allocation (Multi-U&G IOP). The problem integrates GCR allocation into traditional multi-UAV cooperative mission planning. The coupling decision of mission planning and GCR allocation enlarges the decision space and adds complexities to the problem’s structure. Through characterizing the problem, this study establishes a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model for the integrated optimization problem. To solve the problem, we develop a three-stage iterative optimization algorithm combining a hybrid genetic algorithm with local search-variable neighborhood decent, heuristic conflict elimination and post-optimization of GCR allocation.

Numerical experimental results show that our developed algorithm can solve the problem efficiently and exceeds the solution performance of the solver CPLEX. For small-scale instances, our algorithm can obtain optimal solutions in less time than CPLEX. For large-scale instances, our algorithm produces better results in one hour than CPLEX does. Implementing our approach allows efficient coordination of multiple UAVs, enabling faster mission completion with a minimal number of GCRs.

Drawing on the interplay between LE-UAVs and GCRs and considering the practical applications of LE-UAVs, we propose the Multi-U&G IOP problem. We formulate this problem as a MILP model aiming to minimize the maximum task completion time (makespan). Furthermore, we present a relaxation model for this problem. To efficiently address the MILP model, we develop a three-stage iterative optimization algorithm. Subsequently, we verify the efficacy of our algorithm through extensive experimentation across various scenarios.