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The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of economic complexity on services export diversification. This study has been built on two arguments. The first one draws from Eichengreen and Gupta (2013b) and states that countries that export complex products would have a high penetration in the international goods market and establish a network that could be exploited to expand their range of services export items. Second, by inducing higher inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), greater economic complexity could contribute to fostering services export diversification.

The empirical analysis uses a panel data set of 109 countries (both developed and developing countries) over the period of 1985–2014, and in particular, non-overlapping sub-periods of five-year average data. Building on the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments, the empirical analysis has provided support for the above-mentioned two theoretical hypotheses.

The findings indicate that greater economic complexity has been associated with a higher level of services export diversification, and the magnitude of this positive effect is higher for high-income countries than for developing countries. Furthermore, the share of FDI inflows (in percentage of gross domestic product) matters for the effect of economic complexity on services export diversification. Specially, economic complexity exerts a higher positive effect on services export diversification, as the share of net FDI inflows in gross domestic product increases.

From a policy perspective, the analysis complements previous works on the effects of economic complexity (e.g. on economic growth, income inequality, poverty, etc.), by showing that economic complexity also matters for fostering the diversification of countries' services export items. Enhancing economic complexity should be at the heart of policymakers' agenda, both at the national and international levels, given its strong positive effect on macroeconomic aggregates, including on services export diversification, the latter being also an important engine for economic growth (Anand et al., 2012; Gnangnon, 2021a; Mishra et al., 2011; Stojkoski et al., 2016).

This study opens an avenue for future research on whether services export diversification influences economic complexity. One avenue for future research could also be to explore the effect of comparative advantage on goods and services (using the Balassa's revealed comparative advantage index) on services export diversification. Future works could also examine how economic complexity affects different categories of services sectors, including traditional services and modern services.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to address this topic in the literature.

The relationship between real exchange rate and services export diversification is at the heart of this study.

The analysis is performed using a sample of 113 countries over the period 1985–2014, and the 2-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach. The analysis uses both the Theil index and Herfindahl–Hirschman index of services export concentration.

The analysis shows that over the full sample, the real effective exchange rate appreciation induces a greater services export diversification. This outcome applies to high-income countries and developing countries. However, the positive effect of the appreciation of the real exchange rate on services export concentration is lower in least developed countries than in other countries. Finally, the effect of the appreciation of the real exchange rate on services export concentration in tax haven countries depends on the indicator of services export concentration, as this is positive for the Theil index and negative for the Herfindahl–Hirschman index of services export concentration.

These findings highlight the strong influence of real exchange policies on countries' path of services export diversification.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this topic is being addressed in the empirical literature for the first time.

This study investigates the effect of multilateral trade liberalization on services export diversification with a view to complementing the recently published work on the effect of multilateral trade liberalization on export product diversification.

The empirical exercise been performed using a panel dataset of 133 countries over the period 1995–2014.

The findings show that multilateral trade liberalization is associated with greater services export diversification in both developed and developing countries alike. This is particularly the case in countries with a high reliance on manufactured goods exports or those that enjoy greater export product diversification. Interestingly, multilateral trade liberalization enhances services export diversification in countries that experience higher foreign direct investment inflows.

These findings highlight the importance of multilateral trade liberalization for services export diversification. The study has considered explicitly supply-side factors that could affect services export diversification. This is because the indicator of multilateral trade liberalization is highly correlated with some demand-side factors, such as the world demand for services exports. Therefore, another avenue for future research could involve looking at the demand side factors that could influence services export diversification, and whether the degree of multilateral trade liberalization matters for the influence of these demand factors on services export diversification.

The current study through its positive effect on both export product diversification and services export diversification, greater cooperation among World Trade Organization (WTO) Members on trade matters could help revive economic growth, particularly in the current COVID-19 pandemic that has significantly plummeted it.

To the best of our knowledge, this is first study that has investigated this issue.

This study aims to use a quantitative measure of trade policy space to investigate empirically whether trade policy space influences foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to countries.

The empirical analysis covers an unbalanced panel data set of 158 countries, over the period 1995–2015 and uses the two-step system generalized methods of moments approach.

The results suggest that the impact of trade policy space on FDI inflows is positive and increases as countries enjoy greater trade policy space. Furthermore, advanced economies tend to experience a higher positive impact of trade policy space on FDI inflows than less advanced economies.

These findings highlight the relevance of trade policy space for countries’ FDI inflows.

The analysis shows that non-trade related constraints to trade policy could reduce trade policy space and adversely influence FDI inflows, which are critical for countries’ economic growth and development.

To the best of the knowledge, this topic has not been addressed in the literature.

The purpose of this study is to examine empirically whether the impact of multilateral trade liberalization on export performance and export performance convergence in developing countries depends on the amount of Aid for Trade (AfT) flows that accrue to these countries. Export performance is measured by export of goods and services to gross domestic product ratio, whereas export performance convergence refers to the process whereby a developing country’s export performance catches up with the world’s average export performance.

The analysis has used an unbalanced panel data set covering a sample of 97 developing countries, over the period 2002 to 2015. The two-step system generalized methods of moments has been used to address the question empirically.

Empirical results show that multilateral trade liberalization generates higher export performance and convergence in export performance in developing countries only when it is accompanied by higher AfT flows to developing countries, with a view of helping these countries enhance their trade capacity and reap the opportunities offered by multilateral trade liberalization in the international trade market.

These findings indicate that greater access to the international trade market is not sufficient to promote developing countries’ export performance and convergence in export performance. Such a promotion could materialize if multilateral trade liberalization is accompanied by higher AfT flows (to enhance these countries’ capacity to trade). The findings therefore indicate that the current context of escalation of trade tensions would likely result in lower degree of multilateral trade liberalization, and eventually lower AfT flows to recipient-countries, and ultimately hamper developing countries’ export performance and convergence in export performance.

The findings therefore indicate that the current context of escalation of trade tensions would likely result in lower degree of multilateral trade liberalization, and eventually lower AfT flows to recipient-countries, and ultimately hamper developing countries’ export performance and convergence in export performance. An avenue for future research could be to perform the same analysis when data would be available over a longer time period. Future studies on the matter could also investigate whether the findings obtained apply to components of export performance, including for example manufactured exports and non-manufactured exports.

Many papers related to the AfT effectiveness have looked at the effect of AfT inflows on recipient-countries’ export performance. However, little attention has been paid to the effect of multilateral trade liberalization on developing countries’ export performance and export performance convergence and particularly to whether this effect would depend on the amounts of AfT that would accrue to developing countries to help them develop their trade capacity. To the best of our knowledge, no previous paper has addressed this issue.

This study investigates empirically the impact of export product concentration (or diversification) on social protection expenditure in both developed and developing countries. The analysis further explores whether this effect depends on countries' degree of openness to international trade.

The analysis has relied on an unbalanced panel data set comprising 112 countries over the period 1980–2010 and used the two-step system generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimator as the econometric approach.

The empirical analysis conveys two messages. First, low-income countries experience a positive effect of export product concentration on social protection expenditure, while for relatively advanced economies, export product diversification positively influences social protection expenditure. Second, countries that further open up their economies to international trade experience a positive effect of export product diversification on social protection expenditure, with the magnitude of this impact increasing as the degree of openness rises.

These findings highlight the relevance of export product diversification for social protection expenditure in both developed and developing countries, notably in the context of greater trade openness.

The diversification of export products is one means for developed and developing countries alike to increase the scope for social protection expenditure.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this topic had not been addressed.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of multilateral trade policy (MTP) liberalization on developing countries’ economic exposure to shocks.

The analysis is conducted on a panel data set comprising 120 countries over the period 1996–2013 and uses the within fixed effects estimator.

The empirical results suggest that over the entire sample as well as sub-samples of least developed countries (LDCs) and non-LDCs, multilateral trade liberalization have a negative and significant impact on economic exposure to shocks. Interestingly, LDCs appear to experience the highest magnitude of the reducing impact of multilateral trade liberalization on countries’ economic exposure to shocks.

These findings suggest that a greater cooperation among countries in the world, including among WTO members to further liberalize trade would surely contribute to reducing developing countries’ economic exposure to shocks.

The current study shows that the current backlash against trade and the consequent strong appeal for domestic trade protectionist measures would likely to undermine the likelihood of further multilateral trade liberalization. One implication of this could be a rise in countries’ economic exposure to shocks.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is first the study on this matter.

The international trade literature has established that export product diversification lowers export product revenue instability. The current analysis investigates whether this finding carries over services exports.

The empirical analysis covers a sample of 152 countries over the period 1980–2014 and employs the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach.

The empirical findings indicate that services export diversification reduces services export revenue instability both over the full sample as well as over sub-samples of high-income countries (HICs), least developed countries (LDCs) as well as developing countries (i.e. non-HICs) that are not LDCs. HICs appear to experience a higher positive effect of services export diversification on services export revenue instability than in developing countries. The analysis also shows that countries that further open-up to international trade enjoy a greater reducing effect of services export diversification on the instability of services export revenue.

This analysis, therefore, adds to the existing studies on the relationship between export product diversification and the instability of revenue derived from goods exports by focusing on the services export side. An important message from the analysis is that countries that diversify their services export basket enjoy lower services export revenue instability when they further integrate into the world trade market.

This study highlights the importance of services export diversification, including for stabilizing services export revenue to services traders. Diversifying services export items, including across traditional and modern services sectors involves the implementation of a wide range of policies and measures, of which the liberalization of the services sectors through reduction and eventually the elimination of services trade barriers; the improvement of the business environment and the development of domestic financial markets (see for example, Hoekman, 2017). It could be interesting that another study consider policies and measures that could promote services export diversification.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time this topic is being addressed, including empirically.

This paper aims to investigate empirically how international tourism receipts influence public revenue, in particular non-resource revenue.

The analysis relies on an unbalanced panel of 156 countries (including both developed and developing countries) over the period 1995-2015. The empirical analysis uses the two-step system generalized methods of moments estimator.

The empirical results show that international tourism receipts exert a positive and significant impact on non-resource tax revenue. In addition, this effect increases as countries' development levels rise, which signifies that in terms of non-resource tax revenue, an increase in international tourism receipts benefit much more to advanced economies than to less advanced economies.

These findings call for governments notably in developing countries to develop the tourism sector and concurrently to strengthen tax administrations (and possibly design appropriate tax policy for the tourism sector) to derive the full advantage in terms of public revenue from the rise in international tourism receipts.

The analysis highlights the importance of international tourism receipts for public revenue. This would help scholars and policymakers have a clearer view, at least in terms of magnitude, on the impact of international tourism receipts on non-resource tax revenue.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is first the study that investigates this topic.

本文就国际旅游收入如何影响公共收入尤其是非资源收入的问题, 进行了实证研究。

本文的分析基于1995年至2015年期间由156个国家（包括发达国家和发展中国家）组成的不平衡小组的数据。 实证分析采用两步法通用矩量法（GMM）估计。

实证结果表明, 国际旅游收入对非资源税收入产生了积极而显著的影响。 而且, 这种影响随着国家发展水平的提高而增加, 这表明就非资源税收入而言, 国际旅游收入的增加对发达经济体的收益要比对较不发达经济体的收益大得多。

结果表明, 各国政府尤其是发展中国家的政府, 应当发展旅游业, 同时加强税收管理（并可能为旅游业设计适当的税收政策）, 以便从国际旅游业的增长中获得公共收入方面的最大收益。

分析强调了国际旅游收入对公共收入的重要性。 这将有助于学者和决策者对国际旅游收入对非资源税收入的影响（至少在规模上）有更清晰的认识。

据我们所知, 本文是第一个研究该主题的研究。

旅游外汇收入，非资源性收入

研究论文

El artículo investiga empíricamente, cómo los ingresos internacionales por turismo influyen en los ingresos públicos, en particular, todos aquellos ingresos “no relacionados” con los recursos turísticos.

El análisis se basa en un panel no-equilibrado de 156 países (incluidos países desarrollados y en desarrollo) durante el período 1995-2015. El análisis empírico que se aplica, se fundamente en dos fases sobre el estimador de Métodos Generalizados de Momentos (GMM).

Los resultados muestran que los ingresos internacionales por turismo, ejercen un impacto positivo y significativo, en los ingresos fiscales no relacionados con los recursos turísticos. Además, este efecto aumenta, a medida que aumentan los niveles de desarrollo de los países, lo que significa que, en términos de ingresos fiscales, no relacionados con los recursos, un aumento en los ingresos internacionales por turismo, beneficia mucho más a las economías avanzadas, que a las economías menos avanzadas.

Los descubrimientos de este trabajo, exigen que los gobiernos, en particular en los países en desarrollo, fomenten el sector turístico y al mismo tiempo, fortalezcan las administraciones tributarias (y posiblemente diseñen una política fiscal adecuada para el sector turístico), con el fin de obtener una ventaja total, en términos de ingresos públicos por el aumento de los ingresos del turismo internacional.

El análisis destaca la importancia de los ingresos por el turismo internacional en los ingresos públicos. Esto ayudaría a los académicos y gestores de políticas a tener una visión más clara, al menos en términos de magnitud, sobre el impacto de los ingresos por el turismo internacional en los ingresos fiscales no relacionados con los recursos turísticos.

Hasta donde sabemos, este es primero el estudio que investiga este tema.

Recibos de turismo internacional, Ingresos no recurrentes

Trabajo de investigación

This paper investigates the effect of the volatility of resource revenue on the volatility of non-resource revenue.

The empirical analysis has utilized an unbalanced panel data set comprising 54 countries over the period 1980–2015. The two-step system generalized methods of moments (GMM) is the main economic approach used to carry out the empirical analysis.

Results show that resource revenue volatility generates lower non-resource revenue volatility only when the share of resource revenue in total public revenue is lower than 18%. Otherwise, higher resource revenue volatility would result in a rise in non-resource revenue volatility.

In light of the adverse effect of volatility of non-resource revenue on public spending, and hence on economic growth and development prospects, countries whose total public revenue is highly dependent on resource revenue should adopt appropriate policies to ensure the rise in non-resource revenue, as well as the stability of the latter.

Economic diversification in resource-rich countries (particularly in developing countries among them) could contribute to reducing the dependence of economies on natural resources, and hence the dependence of public revenue on resource revenue. Therefore, policies in favour of economic diversification would contribute to stabilizing non-resource revenue, which is essential for financing development needs.

To the best of our knowledge, this topic has not been addressed in the literature.