Maurits Butter, Felix Brandes, Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper
This paper seeks to provide an introduction to the special issue of foresight, dedicated to the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN).
Abstract
Purpose
This paper seeks to provide an introduction to the special issue of foresight, dedicated to the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN).
Design/methodology/approach
The paper sets out the project's rationale and its scope and approach.
Findings
The paper presents some of the achievements of the EFMN, as well as some of its limitations.
Originality/value
The paper considers how the EFMN might be sustained and further developed over the longer term. It also provides a brief description of the main papers in the special issue.
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This paper addresses a challenging topic, which in both academic and professional literatures has been widely discussed but mainly from one single angle – that is, how to select…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper addresses a challenging topic, which in both academic and professional literatures has been widely discussed but mainly from one single angle – that is, how to select foresight methods. From that point of view researchers and consultants promote (even if unintentionally) the use of particular methods. Here the question of selection is raised from a different perspective: how are foresight methods selected?
Design/methodology/approach
The guiding “theory” is that a better understanding of the fundamental attributes of foresight methods and their linkages to the core phases of a foresight process, together with the identification of possible patterns in the selection of methods, will provide useful insights as to how the selection of methods is carried out.
Findings
So far the selection of foresight methods has been dominated by the intuition, insight, impulsiveness and – sometimes – inexperience or irresponsibility of practitioners and organisers. This paper reveals that the selection of foresight methods (even if not always coherent or systematic) is a multi‐factor process, and needs to be considered as such.
Practical implications
The results can be utilised by lecturers and students to describe and understand better the use of foresight methods, and by organisers of foresight (including practitioners) to better inform decisions during the design of (hopefully) more coherent methodological frameworks.
Originality/value
The paper combines practical concepts and frameworks (such as the Foresight Process and the Foresight Diamond) with innovative analyses to represent and visualise better the combination of methods in 886 case studies, for example introducing the Methods Combination Matrix (MCM) to examine the dynamics of a mix of methods.
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Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper
The paper sets out to explore the nature and degree of variation in foresight “style” across six world regions. The underlying hypothesis is that differences in regional context �…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper sets out to explore the nature and degree of variation in foresight “style” across six world regions. The underlying hypothesis is that differences in regional context – in terms of political, socio‐economic, and cultural conditions – will affect foresight “style”. At the same time, a secondary hypothesis acknowledges that policy tool transfer and international learning might soften the influence of contextual conditions.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the data collected for more than 800 foresight exercises in six world regions, the paper considers eight different dimensions of foresight “style”, including domain coverage, time horizon, target groups, and methods used. It interprets regional differences (and similarities) with reference to dominant political and economic traditions in each region. In so doing, it tests the hypothesis that foresight “style” is influenced by regional context.
Findings
The analysis suggests that some foresight “style” dimensions vary between regions more than others. For example, there is marked variation in the domain areas covered by foresight across the world, while some regions appear to prefer particular methods over others. Time horizons also vary. For other dimensions, such as participation levels and the identity of target groups, there is a good deal of similarity. Thus, some dimensions of “style”, at least at the aggregate level, seem to be more influenced by regional context than others.
Originality/value
The paper is unique in being the first publication to survey such a large sample of foresight activity across a wide part of the globe.
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The present paper aims to explore the potential of joint foresight exercises in serving joint programming, a concept highlighted in furthering the creation of the European…
Abstract
Purpose
The present paper aims to explore the potential of joint foresight exercises in serving joint programming, a concept highlighted in furthering the creation of the European Research Area (ERA).
Design/methodology/approach
The paper starts with setting the context, i.e. the ERA concept, and the importance of joint programming. It then explores the potential of joint foresight in serving joint programming. This is done by analysing the current situation of trans‐national foresight based on the EFMN pool of foresight exercises. Then, possible modes and issues of trans‐national foresight collaboration, as well as perceived benefits and challenges, are also examined in setting a framework for foresight collaboration.
Findings
Joint foresight is not carried out in a fully fledged mode, yet but both interest and potential is high. A framework for foresight collaboration can already be set. EFMN is a valuable source of information and also holds a central, synergistic and complementary role in relation to other sources in defining the way to go forward in joint foresight.
Research limitations/implications
The framework for foresight collaboration can form the basis for strategic discussions across EU member states as well as for further research to clarify and enrich understanding of the governing conditions and variables.
Originality/value
The paper proves that EFMN is both a significant pool of information and holds a complementary role in defining the way forward in supporting joint programming under the ERA. The foresight collaboration framework first attempted here is also worth exploiting further.
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SOME years ago a saying was current that when two English librarians met they talked classification, but when two American librarians met they talked publicity. Perhaps the…
Abstract
SOME years ago a saying was current that when two English librarians met they talked classification, but when two American librarians met they talked publicity. Perhaps the long‐held opinion that Americans are necessarily good business men has been somewhat discounted by the state of their country financially at the present moment. But on the whole they are probably the best business people still inhabiting this planet. It was natural, therefore, that what was apparently the main interest of the American librarian should in time become a very substantial interest of his English brother. It is a good thing at intervals to review the manner and methods of our publicity, to see if they are in keeping with the needs and with the spirit of the time. There is the publicity which is good, which is necessary; there is also the publicity which is ostentatious, vulgar and in the end misses its aim. There is also a very definite danger of overdoing publicity. Those libraries which are one mass of posters, advertisements, admonitions, and other notices, suffer from the public neglect of them all. What the librarian who uses publicity methods has to do is to study the current psychology of his readers, and to adapt his posters and publications—indeed all his methods—to harmonise with that psychology.
Jon Charterina and Andrés Araujo
The purpose of this paper is to determine to what extent small sized and periphery-located firms compensate the comparative disadvantages of big centrally located firms, through…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to determine to what extent small sized and periphery-located firms compensate the comparative disadvantages of big centrally located firms, through patent ownership agreements with other agents, notably research institutes.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors develop an empirical study of patents from two completely different economic areas, a central and a peripheral one, represented by Germany and Spain, respectively, in the domain of the Key Enabling Technology (KET) of advanced manufacturing technologies in robotics and automation. Comparing the population of 211 Spanish patents granted with a random sample of 500 German patents, from the files of the US Patent and Trademark Office, the authors obtain and test a series of logistic regression functions taking the predicted possibilities to develop patents with more citations, as a proxy for their value.
Findings
Whereas big companies from central locations do not obtain more heavily cited patents from sharing their R&D activity with other firms or research institutes, smaller manufacturing firms in peripheral areas, namely, Spain, may find this advantageous. Additionally, patents containing fewer cited articles and citations of previous patents, tend to be cited more frequently. Finally, this same outcome is also observed with patents showing shorter time between the application and grant.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study on patent value which examines the KET of advanced manufacturing technologies in robotics and automation, comparing a central to a peripheral geographic environment, and determining the number, diversity and size of patent assignees. The results prove relevant in general for manufacturing businesses, especially in the Machine-Tool and machinery producing industry. Overwhelmingly, these firms tend to be SMEs basing their marketing activity entirely on a Business-to-Business (B2B) focus, and facing serious obstacles for R&D activity.
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At a recent inquest upon the body of a woman who was alleged to have died as the result of taking certain drugs for an improper purpose, one of the witnesses described himself as…
Abstract
At a recent inquest upon the body of a woman who was alleged to have died as the result of taking certain drugs for an improper purpose, one of the witnesses described himself as “an analyst and manufacturing chemist,” but when asked by the coroner what qualifications he had, he replied : “I have no qualifications whatever. What I know I learned from my father, who was a well‐known ‘F.C.S.’” Comment on the “F.C.S.” is needless.
The Food Bill has emerged from the Grand Committee on Trade, and will shortly be submitted, as amended, to the House of Commons. Whatever further amendments may be introduced, the…
Abstract
The Food Bill has emerged from the Grand Committee on Trade, and will shortly be submitted, as amended, to the House of Commons. Whatever further amendments may be introduced, the Bill, when passed into law, will but afford one more example of the impotence of repressive legislation in regard to the production and distribution of adulterated and inferior products. We do not say that the making of such laws and their enforcement are not of the highest importance in the interests of the community; their administration—feeble and inadequate as it must necessarily be—produces a valuable deterrent effect, and tends to educate public opinion and to improve commercial morality. But we say that by the very nature of those laws their working can result only in the exposure of a small portion of that which is bad without affording any indications as to that which is good, and that it is by the Control System alone that the problem can be solved. This fact has been recognised abroad, and is rapidly being recognised here. The system of Permanent Analytical Control was under discussion at the International Congress of Applied Chemistry, held at Brussels in 1894, and at the International Congress of Hygiene at Budapest in 1895, and the facts and explanations put forward have resulted in the introduction of the system into various countries. The establishment of this system in any country must be regarded as the most practical and effective method of ensuring the supply of good and genuine articles, and affords the only means through which public confidence can be ensured.
In a recent speech LORD ROSEBERY charged the people of this country with possessing, to an inordinate extent, the fatal gift of complacency, and he observed that the nation which…
Abstract
In a recent speech LORD ROSEBERY charged the people of this country with possessing, to an inordinate extent, the fatal gift of complacency, and he observed that the nation which is not progressive is retrogressive. “Rest and be thankful,” said LORD ROSEBERY, is a motto which spells decay, and those who have any experience of the methods of the manufacturers of the country will admit that this seemingly severe impeachment is by no means unfounded or uncalled‐for. Industries, of which at one time the English were masters, are now gradually falling into other hands. The workers of other lands are successfully competing with our own, and yet, in spite of this condition of our mercantile affairs, the spirit of complacency is rampant. The sons are content to continue in the footsteps of the fathers, oblivious of the fact that time and seasons do not stand still and that they may be overwhelmed by the advancing flood of competition. The trade conservatism which was in the past opposed to the introduction of the steam‐engine, the power‐loom, and other mechanical appliances, is still responsible for the extreme slowness with which English firms appreciate the necessity for such innovations in the conduct of their business as would place them in a position to hold their own in the markets of the world. In respect to the protection of pure food production Great Britain and the British manufacturers are still a long way behind. Although the Sale of Food and Drugs Act of 1875 was one of the first Acts passed in any country to prevent the sale of adulterated food and drink, its machinery is cumbrous, and the subsequent Amendment Acts have not added materially to its efficiency; with the result that the Adulteration Acts do not compare favourably with those of many other countries. The spirit of complacency in regard to food products has affected alike the producer and the distributor, and the result is that in many instances there is no adequate inducement to produce anything but a mediocre article—such an article, in fact, as only escapes condemnation because of the faulty construction of the machinery of the law.
Cinzia Battistella and Roberto Pillon
The purpose of this paper is to propose and discuss a new regional foresight methodology.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to propose and discuss a new regional foresight methodology.
Design/methodology/approach
The first part describes the methodology and the organizational process adopted for implementing foresight at the regional level and highlights the criticalities. The research methodology is based on a case study. The case is the analysis of the industrial and regional sectors and the technological families in the Lombardy region.
Findings
This methodology analyses trends, technologies and industries, returning a set of qualitative and quantitative indicators. Then, it aggregates them, building two matrixes (trends/technologies and technologies/industries). Finally, it evaluates the future importance of a technology (the attractiveness of a technology for the long-term competitiveness of the regional main industrial sectors) and the capabilities of the regional industrial, technical and scientific system to develop specific technologies (feasibility for the regional system to develop the chosen technology).
Originality/value
The originality lies in an integrated analysis of the possible futures and their relation with the industrial world. Its value is as a tool to suggest policies and R&D investments. It is possible to provide a sound basis for science and technology policymaking.