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The importance of accurate forecasts of tourism demand for managerial decision making is widely recognized (see, for example, Archer 1987), and this study examines the literature on the accuracy of tourism forecasts generated by different forecasting techniques. In fact, although there are many possible forecasting methods, in practice relatively few of these have been used for tourism forecasting.

The purpose of this article is to examine empirically the impact of aggregation on forecasting accuracy; specifically, whether more accurate forecasts are obtained by forecasting a number of disaggregated tourist flows and summing the forecasts to obtain the aggregate forecast, or by summing the disaggregated tourist flows and forecasting the aggregate series directly. On the one hand, it may be easier to produce accurate forecasts from disaggregated series as the latter allow for differing behavioural patterns which may be more readily recognisable and hence easier to model and extrapolate. On the other hand, more aggregate series may be less susceptible to “noise” and therefore easier to forecast.

The objective of this study is to develop a set of econometric models for use in forecasting international tourist demand, as represented by the number of tourist visits, from the F.R. Germany and the United Kingdom to their respective major destinations.

Productivity growth in service industries has generally tended to be lower than in manufacturing industries, and the hotel sector is no exception. Problems of measuring productivity are discussed, together with specific reasons for low productivity in the hotel sector. It is suggested that increased usage of operations management techniques by hotel management is likely to result in improved productivity, and various examples are presented of situations in which these techniques can be successfully employed.

In a manufacturing context, the management of the conversion process takes place in a largely controlled environment which facilitates the measurement and control of quality. In a service organisation the generic differences result in these two aspects being more complex. After briefly reviewing these generic differences, and the difficulties facing the service sector, some of the more specific problems facing airlines in delivering a quality service are considered. Case material is presented to illustrate the steps being taken by some organisations to overcome these difficulties. Areas for further research are identified.

Nach 1953 ist die Internationale Vereinigung wissen‐schaftlicher Fremdenverkehrsexperten zum zweiten Mal in Wien zum jährlichen Kongress versammelt. Damals nach Kriegsende ging es darum, einem langsam wiedererstarkten Tourismus eine solide wissenschaftliche Basis zu geben. Es waren auch die Tourismuswissenschafter der klassischen Fremdenverkehrsländer Italien, Spanien, Österreich und der Schweiz, welche sich 1949 erstmals in der Schweiz trafen, um diesem Vorhaben eine konkrete Struktur zu geben. Prof. Paul Bernecker, als einer dieser Promotoren — genannt seien hier die andern: Prof. Walter Hunziker (bis 1973 Präsident), Prof. Kurt Krapf (erster Generalsekretär) und Prof. Angelo Mariotti — übernahm es, den Wiener Kongress zu organisieren. Er war dem Thema “Marktforschung und Werbung im Fremdenverkehr” gewidmet, übrigens ein nach wie vor aktuelles Thema, auch wenn die Terminologie heute in Marketing bzw. Marktbearbeitung oder Kommunikationspolitik erweitert wurde.

Approche générale du problème Peu nombreux sont les parcs qui se prêtent à une visite de plus d'une journée. Une réflexion qui s'attache aux établissements majeurs pourra donc se cantonner aux réalisations conçues en vue d'accueillir le public pendant une journée, c'est‐à‐dire 5 à 7 heures d'activités entrecoupées de pauses et d'un repas pris sur place.

This study aims to expand tourism knowledge by analysing literature review articles published in English Web of Science (WOS) and Chinese China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) language journals and reviewing their influence, interconnection and trends.

A three-stage method was designed to understand the tourism research progress. Performance analysis identified the publication timeline, high-yielding journals and authors that published tourism literature reviews and frequently cited papers. Science mapping visualisation examined the intrinsic connections between co-authorship and co-institution. Finally, emerging trend analysis explored the topic modelling and evolution through Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) and regression.

The key statistics and collaborations relationships of tourism literature reviews were traced. LDA identified 45 and 22 topics, which narrowed the barriers in tourism studies. The regression analysis divided these topics into “hot”, “fresh”, “bell-shaped” and “stable” patterns. These modes represent the progress of tourism studies. The topic “new emerging technologies and the internet” is the focus of tourism literature reviews published in both databases. Future research could pay more attention to the topics in the “hot” and “fresh” patterns. The results enrich the progress of tourism literature reviews and provide a direction for future research.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first literature analysis for tourism literature reviews published in WOS versus CNKI journals. The proposed three-stage systematic method is used for the first time for the literature review and can guide future research.

本研究旨在通过分析英文WOS和中文CNKI语言期刊上发表的文献综述文章, 回顾其影响、相互联系和趋势, 来扩大旅游知识体系。

本研究设计了一个三阶段方法来了解旅游研究进展。绩效分析确定了出版时间线、发表的旅游文献综述的高产期刊和作者以及经常被引用的文章。科学地图可视化审视了合作作者和合作机构之间的内在联系。最后, 新兴趋势分析通过潜在狄利克雷分配和回归探讨了主题建模和演变。

本文追踪了旅游文献综述的关键统计数据和合作情况。潜在狄利克雷分配确定了45个和22个主题, 这缩小了旅游研究中的研究缺口。回归分析将这些主题分为“热门”、“新鲜”、“钟形”和“稳定”模式。这些模式代表了旅游研究的进展。主题“新兴技术和互联网”是不同数据库中发表的旅游文献综述的焦点。未来的研究可以更多地关注“热门”和“新鲜”模式中的主题。研究结果丰富了旅游文献综述的进展, 为今后的研究提供了方向。

这项研究是首次对WOS与CNKI期刊上发表的旅游文献评论进行文献分析。所提出的三阶段系统方法首次用于文献综述, 可以指导未来的研究。

El objetivo de este estudio es ampliar el conocimiento turístico analizando los artículos de revisión documental publicados en revistas, tanto en la versión WOS en inglés cómo en CNKI China, y revisando sus efectos, interconexiones y tendencias.

Se ha diseñado el método de tres etapas para comprender el progreso de la investigación turística. El análisis del desempeño determinó la línea de tiempo de publicación, las revistas de alto rendimiento y los comentarios de la literatura turística publicados por los autores, así como los artículos citados con frecuencia. La visualización de los mapas científicos, examina los vínculos intrínsecos entre los autores colaboradores y las instituciones colaboradoras. Finalmente, el análisis de tendencias emergentes explora el modelado temático y la evolución a través de posibles asignaciones y regresiones de dilick-ray.

Se han analizado las estadísticas clave y las relaciones de cooperación de la revisión de la literatura turística. La asignación potencial de dilich-ray identifica 45 y 22 temas, lo que reduce las barreras en la investigación turística. El análisis de regresión divide estos temas en patrones “populares”, “novedosos”, “en forma de campana” y “estables”. Estos modelos representan el avance de la investigación turística. El tema “tecnologías emergentes e internet” es el foco de la revisión de la literatura turística publicada en diferentes bases de datos. La investigación futura puede centrarse más en temas en modelos “populares” y “novedosos”. Los resultados de la investigación enriquecen el progreso de la revisión de la literatura turística y proporcionan una dirección para futuras investigaciones.

El estudio es el primer análisis documental de los comentarios de la literatura turística publicados en las revistas WOS y CNKI. El método sistemático de tres etapas propuesto se utiliza por primera vez en la revisión documental y puede guiar futuras investigaciones.

Tourism plays an important role in the Portuguese economy. It employs 3.5 per cent of the working population and is the most rapidly growing economic activity in Portugal (OECD, 1986). Mendonsa (1983, p.218) notes that Portugal ‘is a poor country which has only managed to maintain a favorable balance of trade because of tourism and the remittances of its many emigrants working abroad’. Portuguese tourism is also increasingly successful compared to other destinations; Kendell and de Haast (1986, p. 12) point out that Portugal ‘has one of the fastest growing tourism sectors in Western Europe’.

When the theme of the conference was first announced, the term ‘Thermalisme’ was used. We wondered, ‘What is Thermalisme?’ We looked in an English dictionary, but without success ‐ the term was not given. So we started looking further afield. We thought that thermalisme suggests thermal, which in turn lead us to think of thermal springs, which implies spas ‐ perhaps' Eventually we found an article by Cohen (1974) which asks the question ‘Who Is A Tourist?’ In this article, Cohen lists eight ‘partial tourist rôles’ (p. 541), one of which is: