Managerial Finance: Volume 7 Issue 1

The Role of Forecasting

L.T. Simister

Forecasting is a natural part of human behaviour and experience whether we explicitly realise it or not. For all of us are continually implementing plans as we go about our daily…

Short‐Term Forecasting of the Economy

John R. Sparkes, Stephen F. Witt

At all levels of economic management — from the economy to the company — forecasting is widely accepted as a crucial aspect of policy making. The purpose of this paper is first…

The Cyclical Indicator Approach to Forecasting

John R. Sparkes

Cyclical fluctuations in the level and rate of growth of economic activity have long been a feature of the British economy. The ability to forecast “turning points” (peaks and…

An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Forecasting Methods as applied to the UK Foreign Holiday Market

Stephen F. Witt, Robin A.C. Rice

There are two distinct types of forecasting model in which past experience is used as an indicator of the future, and these may be termed “causal” models and “non‐causal” models…

Market Efficiency and the use of Accounting Data in Bankruptcy Forecasting

Douglas Wood

In finance the proposition that market prices in company securities are efficient in respect of public information has received substantial confirmation over the years (Fama…

Learning and Experience Curves — A Review

Sydney Howell

The origin and applications of learning curves. Learning curves were first noticed by aircraft producers before World War II. The time taken to assemble a new type of aircraft…

Forecasting Exchange Rates: Theory and Practice

John H. Morgan

Since the widespread introduction of floating exchange rate regimes amongst the major currencies in the early 1970s, the problem of correctly anticipating exchange rate…

Formal Forecasting in British Industry

A.K. McHugh, John R. Sparkes

This article is based on a questionnaire survey of seventy‐six British manufacturing companies, chosen by circularising members of the Institute of Cost and Management Accountants…