Tourism in a VUCA World: Managing the Future of Tourism

Business environment has had a considerable influence on the strategic and operational choices of organisations since the beginning of industrialisation. The faster pace of change in the environment and unpredictability was observed in the advancement of the industrial ages. Strategic management thinkers studied the organisational context of turbulent environments including volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA). Ambiguity in a volatile, uncertain, and complex environment changed the rules of business altogether from structured organisations to flexible ones with living entity-like responsiveness. Strategic leadership has emerged as the radar to see solutions in unpredictable environments. The inherent vulnerability of tourism to the vagaries of outside forces makes it imperative to accept and prepare for VUCA. The future of tourism will rest in flexible, agile, innovative, and resilient business models.

A key lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic was the extent to which the collapse of tourism activity underlined the sensitivity of the industry with regard to mass and over-tourism. In previous decades, we were aware of the effects of such events as terrorist attacks and environmental disasters; the pandemic provided a display of the fragility of tourism. It represented a wake-up call for us to pause and reflect on whether the type of industry tourism had become, was entirely fit for purpose and to imagine what the ‘new normal’ tourism would be. The problem apparent since the middle of 2022, as pandemic restrictions lessened and tourism destinations re-opened, was that there would be no ‘new normal’ as in many cases there would be a return to the ‘old normal’, as mass tourism destinations refilled with visitors and environmental degradation resumed. The sense of fragility continued, no longer impelled by the pandemic, but by new critical events in the post-pandemic world – war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, the consumer inflation crisis and rising interest rates in advanced economies, and the slowing of real economic growth. In addition, in 2023, we became even more aware of dangers from an over-heating planet – such as floods and extreme weather conditions. The longer-term prospect of many popular tourism resorts being effectively wiped out is no longer an obscure threat but a potentially concrete reality. This chapter will look at how we manage trends towards a more sustainable and responsible form of tourism.

The global energy transition is a process without historical experience that affects all participants in the technological chain of energy management, citizens and business entities. This increasingly dynamic process is aimed at decarbonisation of the entire economy, social stability and human well-being. We are witnessing the rapid development of more energy-efficient technologies, clean energy sources and stricter rules regarding the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The data clearly show changes in the Earth’s climate system. Their consequences represent the most urgent threat to the longevity of tourism, which is one of the five most threatened economic sectors. At the same time, tourism continues to have a significant contribution to climate change due to growing GHG emissions, primarily from transport and accommodation facilities.

This chapter seeks to provide an overview of the drivers of GHG emissions and societal responses aimed at addressing tourism-related carbon emissions. It also offers an overview of climate and energy public policies and possible solutions towards a net-zero carbon future for the tourism industry. The purpose of this review is to empower tourism practitioners with current knowledge funded in global and European decarbonisation strategies and encourage them to reflect and create a new and more effective solution.

This chapter explores the reciprocal dynamics between climate change and tourism, underlining the imperative to comprehend this connection for effective mitigation strategies and sustainable practices. It focuses on two contrasting regions, the Mediterranean and Himalayan, elucidating their geographical and economic disparities. The Mediterranean, known for its coastal and marine attractions, faces high vulnerability to climate change, impacting outdoor recreation and tourism activities. This region experiences a Mediterranean climate characterised by distinct seasonal patterns, but it also grapples with high-impact atmospheric events like floods and droughts, while the Himalayan region is experiencing more untimely rain and snowfall, erratic monsoons, and decreased snowfall. These climatic challenges, coupled with a growing population and dependence on imported resources, necessitate adaptation strategies for the agricultural and food production sectors. This chapter evaluates climate anomalies and impacts in both the Indian Himalayan and the Adriatic region, with a particular focus on the tourism industry’s adaptation and mitigation capacities.

In addition to vulnerabilities resulting from climate change, it also analysed existing measures and documents related to climate change, as well as their effectiveness based on the expert opinion of the focus groups. The findings reveal that both regions experience shared and region-specific climate change impacts, affecting agriculture, water resources, human health, and infrastructure. Further research opportunities are identified, including the study of ecosystem resilience, biodiversity preservation, sustainable water resource management, and long-term public health implications of changing climatic conditions. This chapter underscores the urgency of climate action and the imperative for adaptive strategies in a complex and uncertain landscape.

Technologies like virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and artificial intelligence (AI) impact the decision-making process related to the creation of tourist offers. The aim of this chapter is to analyse the exigency of application technologies in the tourism industry from the aspect of business, in order to demonstrate the readiness of certain organisations to apply alternative reality technologies. This chapter analyses the attitudes of top, middle, and operational managers in 3-star, 4-star, and 5-star hotels at the regional level of Dubrovnik-Neretva county in order to assess the necessity for businesses in the hotel industry to adopt alternative reality technologies as well as the key benefits and opportunities that come with it. Empirical research was conducted using a convenience purposive sample of managers in order to determine the relationship between the application of specific technologies and tourism organisations. Statistical methods were used to evaluate the data in order to test the importance of the respondent’s examination attitudes. The results reflect the state of hotel organisations in terms of the usefulness that technologies as alternative forms of reality can provide them in business and point to the increasing adaptation of the tourist sector for the application of such technologies.

When tourists visit new destinations, they often bring their own values and cultural system, their behaviours, and ways of relaxing, which sometimes do not coincide with the host’s expectations. Holidays are usually associated with relaxation and fun, so tourists are not inclined to think about the norms of behaviour or environmental issues or any other concerns that worry the society today. Tourist destinations face numerous problems related to their sustainability and try to achieve a balance between economic development, environmental protection, and satisfaction of residents’ guests. Sometimes even small changes in behaviour could contribute to sustainability. In this chapter, an attempt will be made to identify the problems related to the behaviour of tourists in destinations, the reasons for such behaviour, and the potential for using the nudging approach to elicit different behaviour. Qualitative research methodology was used to gather the opinion of destination managers about the use of a nudge. For research purposes, a workshop was held with stakeholders in the destination on the possibilities of using nudging to solve problems in the destination concerning tourist behaviour. The results have shown that destination managers were not familiar with nudging. Therefore, the theoretical framework with examples of Croatian destination managers and their views on the possibilities of using nudging will be presented. The managers were positive about the use of nudging as a tool in destination management. With regards to the specificities of their destinations and bad tourist behaviour with which they are faced, they mentioned different possibilities for applying nudging.

This chapter focuses on cruise tourism and its impact on cities and local life in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. Three-time phases will be analysed: pre-, during, and past the main phase of the pandemic. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, a lot of cities, especially in the Mediterranean, were struggling with the amount of cruise tourists in the context of overtourism. During the travel restrictions due to the pandemic, cruise tourism almost came to a total stillstand. Using Dubrovnik, Croatia, as a case study, this chapter reflects on strategies of cruise companies and city governments to deal with the pandemic situation and the comeback of cruise tourism afterwards. Moreover, the impact of cruise tourism on local life and citizens during these three phases will be analysed. Unpredictable risks like pandemics change the tourist world and require solutions to deal with risks to overcome critical situations and phases. Analysing these situations generates knowledge, which can be used for the further development of solutions in the VUCA world.

This study explores how tourist xenophobia (TXO) and residents’ acceptance of tourists changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. If tourists feel TXO when travelling abroad during the pandemic, then, as residents in their home country, they may not welcome other tourists. Previous research on xenophobia in tourism has focused on tourists’ perspectives, but few studies have examined residents’ perspectives. Therefore, this study attempts to identify the influence of TXO on residents’ acceptance during COVID-19 in Japan. The national government required residents to stay at home and avoid unnecessary outings while implementing a campaign to promote the tourism industry by subsidising travel expenses. Analysis of data from residents in tourist destinations showed that TXO negatively influences residents’ acceptance of tourists and their travel intentions. There was a significant covariance between travel intention and tourist acceptance. Thus, TXO affects tourist intention and residents’ acceptance. Destination managers must explain to residents the importance of attracting tourists to boost the economy and mitigate xenophobia. Mitigating residents’ xenophobia and welcoming tourists are crucial for becoming a sustainable tourist destination in the volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) era of the pandemic.

This study explores the socio-demographic and psychological factors influencing pro-environmental behavior among Generation Z individuals. Aimed at deciphering the impact of socio-demographic characteristics on psychological drivers and identifying significant psychological factors affecting pro-environmental behavior, the research utilizes an inductive approach with a sample of 225 Generation Z members from Splitsko-Dalmatia County, Croatia. Data were collected via an online questionnaire focusing on attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors related to the environment. Findings reveal that gender, education level, and residential area significantly influence psychological drivers such as guilt, moral obligations, and self-identity, with women, individuals with higher education levels, and those residing in suburban areas exhibiting higher levels of these drivers. This study contributes to the understanding of pro-environmental behavior in Generation Z by highlighting the importance of socio-demographic variables and psychological factors, thus offering insights for promoting sustainable behaviors among this demographic.

During the pandemic, people have been experiencing the effects of the VUCA era, which has led to changes in lifestyle, including the way we approach tourism. In the past, tourism focused on enjoying nature and cultural heritage, but now there are many different forms, such as sports adventure, edu-tourism, and Sustainable Tourism. Recently, there has been a new trend in tourism called ‘healing’, which emphasises activities that promote relaxation and wellness, such as meditation, yoga, herbal therapy, and forest healing. In Indonesia, there have been over 100 promotional activities for healing tourist attractions, and the term has become increasingly popular in tweets and online searches. This trend reflects the growing need for people to restore their fitness and energy, not just seek pleasure. Studies have shown that travel can help reduce stress and improve mental health, making healing tourism an attractive option for many. By analysing digital data, this article seeks to explain this phenomenon and how it relates to the demands and stresses of modern life. The COVID-19 pandemic has only heightened the need for healing tourism as people seek to fulfil their basic human needs for relaxation and rejuvenation.

The aim of the study is to assess the resilience of tourism enterprises in the face of the pandemic crisis and the war in Ukraine. It was achieved on the base of the results of surveys conducted among Małopolska (Poland) tourism enterprises in the years 2021–2022. The research was conducted using the CAWI technique, it has been collected 517 completed questionnaires. Regression analysis was used to check the relationships between the studied variables. The findings confirm that the surveyed companies react agilely to changing, volatile, uncertain, and complex business conditions. These companies undertook numerous innovative (most often in the scale of the company) solutions in the organisational area. Changes noticed in the behaviour of contractors were also confirmed by constant monitoring of the environment forced by dynamic changes in conditions. Among the factors determining the activities of tourist companies in the context of international factors, one can undoubtedly mention the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine (and thus the energy crisis). The research focuses on the important subject of resilience, organisational changes, and agility in adapting to conditions in the face of volatility and uncertainty in the environment.

After COVID-19, the current situation is more VUCA than ever. Tourism has shown great resilience but has been recently truncated. The question is how tourism destinations have coped with the pandemic and how are they preparing for other impacts in the future? This chapter analyses how Spanish tourism stakeholders have coped with the pandemic and whether tourism destinations are prepared for other hazards. It proposes a comparison of the preparations that have been made to deal with the crisis in the sector with those that are being made to deal with tsunamis. Even if this comparison may seem surprising, in both cases, we are dealing with the preparation for a hazard that affects a tourist destination. In view of this unprecedented situation, it has become clear that tourist destinations are vulnerable to different events that may occur, and risk management is necessary to be able to deal with all situations. This has shown that other hazards less frequent in Spain, such as tsunamis, have been relegated. Knowing how both hazards have been dealt with in the Spanish tourism sector will help to highlight weaknesses in planning. This will involve some anticipation and will avoid planning and management on the fly.

Mexico is a nation that attracts significant volumes of international tourists annually. The country possesses abundant natural and cultural assets, with significant opportunities for its tourism sector. Its geographical positioning, favourable weather, and the hospitality of its inhabitants enhance these prospects. Simultaneously, this country exhibits a heightened susceptibility to natural calamities and a dearth of public safety measures. The Mexican tourism industry encounters significant challenges within the framework of the VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) model. These challenges include the inherent natural risks associated with the country, the escalating impact of global warming, and the proliferation of organised crime. Within this context, the management of tourist destinations in Mexico neglects significant factors highlighted in theoretical models associated with competitiveness and sustainability. These factors include public security, crisis and disaster management, political will, load capacity, and destination’s image. The predicament encountered by Mexican tour operators is formidable, as the socio-political circumstances in Mexico facilitate the expansion of organised crime, leading to its infiltration into various sectors and regions of the country, with significant impacts on tourist operations. This chapter analyses the effects of organised crime on Mexico’s tourism industry, utilising the VUCA framework as a conceptual lens.

COVID-19 has alerted all stakeholders to the serious challenges of biothreats to humanity and its progress. Tourism as a business has been one of the worst sufferers from the COVID-19 impacts and has been held responsible to an extent for the spread of the virus. The ‘containment, isolation, and restrictions’ of biosafety and biosecurity measures exposed the vulnerability of the tourism industry. The densely populated urban areas in India can always be hot spots for the spread of biovectors from similar biothreats in the future, with a more significant threat to employment from mitigation measures. This theoretical paper combines research from medical science, biology, tourism, and other related areas to develop a thesis that social scientists can add value in designing socially acceptable measures for scientific solutions recommended by experts from medical and other related fields. The general environment of health and hygiene in India needs to be made safer for its population and tourists as a first-level strategy to reduce the risks of biothreats. The next level strategy shall be dominated by science to suggest mitigation measures with parallel action by tourism stakeholders for a socially acceptable face of safety measures.

For the last three decades, due to socio-economic and political processes such as Europeanisation and globalisation, Croatia has faced a population decline, leading to an increased number of abandoned settlements. During the COVID-19 crisis, rural areas in Croatia became areas of interest and rural tourism increased. However, the increased interest did not result in the revival of abandoned settlements but rather just in the construction of new facilities. According to statistical data, the majority of abandoned settlements are in regions with the highest tourist traffic or along the traffic corridor from continental Croatia to the Adriatic Sea. The superponing of statistical demographic data, tourism data, the spatial distribution of abandoned rural settlements, sectoral development plans, regional spatial characteristics, and types of construction related to tourism resulted in a proposal of a conceptual model for the reconstruction and inclusion of abandoned rural architecture and infrastructure settlements in the development of rural tourism.

Concerning the growth of certain tourist regions in Croatia, to achieve sustainability and resilience in managing territory, abandoned rural locations and infrastructure should be included in sectoral regional development plans in order to strengthen rural identity by preserving architectural heritage, landscape attractions, symbols, and all other identity contributors.

This chapter provides an overview of the key themes and takeaways discussed in this book, which explores the challenges and opportunities that the tourism industry faces in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world. Several reasons emphasise the importance of understanding the VUCA world, including risk management, innovation, resilience, evolving strategies, and anticipatory leadership. The book addresses the need to rethink tourism, community perspectives, and tourist behaviour in the VUCA context, which is vital for destination management. Stakeholders must adapt to changing conditions, implement effective crisis response strategies, and promote sustainability. Destinations and businesses must be proactive, adaptable, and forward-thinking, as well as foster cultures of innovation. Embracing digital technologies can enhance an organisation’s ability to navigate the VUCA environment, and scenario planning can help identify and mitigate risks that can impact operations, financial stability, or reputation.

The future of the tourism industry in a VUCA world involves a holistic approach that prioritises healing, resilience, risk management, innovation, and sustainability. It requires a commitment to responsible tourism, nature and cultural preservation, and adaptability to changing conditions. By embracing these directions, the tourism industry can navigate the complexities of the VUCA environment and build a more sustainable and resilient future. Agility, adaptability, and innovative thinking are critical for long-term success and sustainability in an unpredictable and rapidly changing world. Therefore, this book offers valuable insights into addressing the challenges of the VUCA world and provides a roadmap for the tourism industry’s path forward.