Deciphering the Eastern Mediterranean's Hydrocarbon Dynamics: Unravelling Regional Shifts

The geopolitical significance of the Mediterranean Sea transcends regional security and energy supply, profoundly impacting global security dynamics. Daily headlines underscore the plight of migrants from the Middle East and North Africa crossing the Mediterranean, exacerbating humanitarian crises and European identity challenges. Environmental concerns are further heightened by the abundance of global ports facilitating oil and goods transportation, alongside the staggering number of tourists flocking to the Mediterranean coast annually. This chapter serves as a gateway to the book, exploring the concept of “geopolitics” and delineating its characteristics. It specifically delves into the political economy of the Eastern Mediterranean and the geopolitical obstacles to energy security in the region. The chapter strategically selects four primary issues to dissect the region’s conflict complexity: the Syrian crisis, the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, the unresolved Cyprus dispute, and the Lebanon–Israel conflict over water border demarcation.

The Eastern Mediterranean countries exhibit diversity in religion, culture, politics, and economy, amid rapid and dynamic regional developments shaped by global polarization and the international security landscape, rendering future prognostications challenging. This chapter delves into the realms of oil and natural gas production, the influx of multinational corporations, water boundaries, and renewable energy vis-à-vis fossil fuels in the Eastern Mediterranean, elucidating the realities of cooperation and competition within the region. Analysis of cooperation and competition dynamics is imperative for comprehending the tensions among states. Enhanced cooperation between states may lead to mutual benefits, such as increased oil and gas prices favoring their partnership, while any escalation in competition can swiftly be perceived as a threat, exacerbating tensions. The desirability of such cooperation or competition in the international political economy remains subject to ongoing debate.

Since 2010, the eastern Mediterranean has witnessed a transformative narrative with the discovery of natural gas reserves off the coasts of Cyprus and Israel. This pivotal development has drawn attention to the region, where Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, Turkey, and Greece share maritime borders. The emergence of natural gas has reshaped geopolitical dynamics, and Western countries assume to reduce their reliance on Russia for energy supplies. This chapter explores the magnitude of natural gas discoveries and production in Cyprus and Israel, examining the interconnection of their fields and the ambitious endeavor of laying a 1,900-km underwater pipeline to the Greek island of Crete. Additionally, it highlights the pivotal roles played by key regional actors such as Israel, Turkey, and Egypt in shaping security and energy negotiations. However, Turkey has a significant position in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, but tensions have arisen as neighboring countries seek to limit Turkey’s involvement in regional energy discussions, viewing its policies as a potential threat, thereby exacerbating Turkey’s regional interventions, particularly in Cyprus. Each of these countries in the Middle East is struggling to get more of the cake. Above all, Israel has been a gas importer throughout its history and now dreams of becoming a natural gas exporter to Europe.

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) stands as a significant player in the hydrocarbon landscape of the Middle East, necessitating an in-depth analysis of its role in the exportation process to Turkey and Mediterranean ports, thereby fostering economic and political ties and projecting toward the future. Situated as a semi-autonomous entity in northern Iraq, the Kurdistan Region boasts abundant natural gas resources, attracting interest from Russian firms and Turkish stakeholders. However, Iran’s influence in Iraq and the wider region poses a regional threat to the Kurdistan Region’s natural resources. This chapter meticulously examines the oil and gas blocks within the Kurdistan Region amidst the backdrop of transformative global energy market shifts, including the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian conflict. Through this lens, it seeks to delineate the Kurdistan Region’s political and economic positioning within the evolving regional order.

The Eastern Mediterranean’s energy reserves have ushered in a new era of economic, military, and political dynamics, both locally and globally. While the trade in natural gas has reshaped the region’s economic landscape, it has also sparked heightened tensions and security concerns. Positioned at the crossroads of Europe, Asia Minor, and Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean now serves as a nexus for political, military, and economic interests. This chapter explores how the region’s eastern and southern shores have historically been a battleground for competing political ideologies, economic systems, and military arsenals, notably those of the United States and the Soviet Union. It delves into the complexities of foreign intervention by nations and organizations, with a particular focus on the roles of the United States, Russia, and NATO’s Mediterranean Initiative. Additionally, the chapter evaluates the theoretical frameworks of international relations, including neorealism, neoliberal institutionalism, and regional security complex theories, to elucidate the dynamics of hydrocarbon competitions in the Eastern Mediterranean and their implications for energy security.

This chapter investigates the collective response to environmental hazards within the Mediterranean basin and the southeastern Mediterranean region, exploring the challenges posed to current energy transportation and economic policies. Despite the ecological significance of the Mediterranean Sea, it faces mounting human pressures and political conflicts, particularly in its eastern area, which threaten its ecological integrity. The chapter examines the extent of consensus and cooperation among Mediterranean states in addressing environmental degradation, considering the diverse interests at play, including economic, commercial, and environmental concerns. With a focus on countries such as Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, and Turkey, the chapter assesses the scope of cooperation in combating environmental degradation and safeguarding human security in the region amidst the backdrop of climate change and ecological challenges.