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Prospects for improved Algerian-Moroccan ties are low

Friday, November 17, 2023

Significance

The Israel-Hamas conflict has added to tensions between Algiers and Rabat over Western Sahara and their military build-ups, following Algiers' decision to break diplomatic relations in 2021. A fatal maritime shooting in September and explosions in Western Sahara in October could have sparked escalation, but both governments chose to exercise restraint.

Impacts

  • Algeria will leverage its energy wealth to build international support for its positions against Morocco.
  • Rabat could increase political and humanitarian support to the Palestinians to lower public pressure for a break in Israeli ties.
  • Rabat and Algiers will compete for influence and soft power in Africa.

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