Saudi-US ties are in flux

Significance

Saudi Arabia has assertively pursued its own interests vis-à-vis oil prices and Yemen and has refused to take sides in the Russia-Ukraine war. Over the last decade, Riyadh has come to doubt US commitment to the bilateral relationship and regional security. Old assumptions of common interests no longer hold sway.

Impacts

• Biden’s stance on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will become trickier to sustain if the 86-year-old king withdraws from public life.
• Biden’s release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve suggests an attempt to erode Saudi influence over prices.
• Riyadh will explore the potential for alternative security partnerships, including with Europe and China.