Gabonese government reassurances will ring hollow

Significance

The president’s health troubles and prolonged absence have created a political crisis and fears of institutional instability. With the economy struggling amid declining oil revenues, the Bongo family’s political power is fragile.

Impacts

• Ongoing unease surrounding Bongo’s presidency may undermine interest in a planned new oil licensing round.
• Despite opposition uncertainties, a popular uprising to oust Bongo remains a possibility over the short-to-medium term.
• A potential corruption scandal involving French newspaper Liberation and the Gabonese authorities could ensnare more regime insiders.