German election campaign will ignore hard choices

Subject

Germany’s election campaign.

Significance

Germany's general election campaign has so far seen a staggering lack of debate over substance and hard policy choices. This, combined with fine-tuned coalition tactics and a complacent electorate, could trigger a delay of necessary reforms regardless of what the next government looks like.

Impacts

• The CDU/CSU will run a toothless campaign based on continuity and stability and focusing wholly on Merkel.
• Serious coalition negotiations are likely to wait until after a regional election in the swing state of Lower Saxony on October 15.
• Negotiations will be more complicated than usual as the CDU is likely to hold all the trump cards, having several coalition options.
• The large proportion of undecided voters -- over 40% according to recent polls -- makes credibly predicting the results impossible.