2001 was a record year for robot investment in Europe but one of plummeting sales in Japan and the United States

Citation

(2003), "2001 was a record year for robot investment in Europe but one of plummeting sales in Japan and the United States", Industrial Robot, Vol. 30 No. 1. https://doi.org/10.1108/ir.2003.04930aab.010

2001 was a record year for robot investment in Europe but one of plummeting sales in Japan and the United States

2001 was a record year for robot investment in Europe but one of plummeting sales in Japan and the United States

Worldwide growth in the period 2002-2005 is forecast at an average annual rate of 7.5 per cent. Household robots are now on the verge of taking off.

UNECE issues its 2002 World Robotics survey

Below are some of the many questions answered by the newly released survey World Robotics 2002 produced by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) in cooperation with the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). The following questions and answers provide an executive summary of this 380 pages in-depth analysis.

How did the recession and 11 September affect the robot business? “The European business did very well. The European Union scored record investments of 30,500 units or 2.5 per cent over the previous record of year 2000”, says Jan Karlsson, responsible for the UNECE/IFR publication. In the United Kingdom and Spain investment surged by as much as 26 per cent and 22 per cent, respectively. On the other hand, robot investments in Japan fell by almost 40 per cent. The market in the United States fell by 17 per cent. When excluding Japan and the Republic of Korea, the world market fell by just 3 per cent.

What about the trends in 2002 and the forecast for 2002-2005? Confidence seems to be back in North America. Orders increased by 2 per cent compared with the same period in 2001. In Asia the market expanded by 8 per cent. In Europe, however, the market was gloomy. Orders fell by 15 per cent. For the period 2002-2005, the world market is forecast to grow by an annual average of 7.5 per cent.

How many robots are now working out there in industry? Worldwide at least 760,000 units (possibly the real stock could be over one million units), of which 360,000 in Japan, 220,000 in the European Union and just under 100,000 in North America. In Europe, Germany is in the lead with just under 100,000 units, followed by Italy with 44,000, France with 23,000, Spain 16,000 and the United Kingdom with 13,000.

What is the forecast for 2005? A conservative forecast points to some 965,000 worldwide, of which 352,000 in Japan, 321,000 in the European Union and 131,000 in North America.

Is Japan’s lead position in automation eroding? Robot business was booming in Japan in the 1980s and early 1990s. The optimism was unlimited. It seemed as if everything that could be robotized was robotized. Since the middle of the 1990s, the momentum in the robot business has moved to Europe and North America but also to countries like Brazil. While the robot stock continuously increases in Europe and North America (8 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, in 2001) it has been steadily falling in Japan since 1998. However, as from 2004 it is expected to start to increase again.

Are we seeing any service robots in our homes? Lawn moving robots have had their commercial breakthrough while vacuum cleaning robots have just recently been introduced on the market. Next in line are window cleaning robots.

How are service robots for professional use doing? Medical robots, underwater robots, surveillance robots, demolition robots and many other types of robots for carrying out a multitude of tasks are doing very well. A stock of some 12,000 units was estimated at the end of 2001. In the period 2002-2005, another 25,000 units are projected to be added to the stock.

The facts

The world market fell by 21 per cent in 2001…

Worldwide sales of multipurpose industrial robots, admitting the fact that the figures for Japan and the Republic of Korea include all types of industrial robots, peaked in 1990 when they reached over 80,000 units (see Figure 1). Following the recession in 1991-1993, worldwide sales of industrial robots fell to about 53,000 units in 1993. The world robot market then started a period of strong recovery, which peaked in 1997 when it reached a level of 82,000 units. In 1998, however, sales plunged by 15 per cent to just under 69,000 units. The market recovered sharply in 1999 with sales of nearly 80,000 units, an increase of almost 15 per cent over 1998. In 2000, growth accelerated to 24 per cent, attaining a record of almost 99,000 units. In 2001, however, the world market fell by 21 per cent, reaching 78,100 units “… mainly as a result of plummeting sales in Japan and a depressed market in the United States.”

Figure 1 Price index of industrial robots for international comparison (based on 1990 $ conversion rate), with and without quality adjustment

After two years of falling or stagnant sales, there was a sharp recovery in Japan in 2000. Sales of all types of industrial robots surged by 32 per cent over 1999, reaching almost 47,000 units. This recovery was, however, only temporary because in 2001 the market fell by nearly 40 per cent below the 2000 level to 28,400 units, the lowest level since the middle of the 1980s.

From 1995 to 2000, the robot market in the United States was booming every second year and, in the years between, it was flat or falling. In 1995, 1997 and 1999 it increased by 32 per cent, 28 per cent and 37 per cent, respectively. By contrast, in 1996 and 1998, the market dropped by 5 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively, while in 2000 it was almost flat (+1 per cent). However, the highest sale of multipurpose industrial robots, in their strict definition, ever recorded was in 2000 when it reached nearly 13,000 units. In 2001, the market fell by nearly 17 per cent to 10,800 units.

The market in the European Union continued to grow…

In the European Union, sales of multipurpose industrial robots rose by 19 per cent in 2000 to 29,800 units. In 2001, sales continued to grow but by a modest 2.5 per cent, reaching 30,500 units. However, the market varied significantly between countries: 2 per cent and 8 per cent in Germany and France, respectively, to 26 per cent in the United Kingdom and 22 per cent in Spain.

Estimate of the worldwide operational stock of industrial robots

Total accumulated yearly sales, measured since industrial robots started to be introduced in industry at the end of the 1960s, amounted at the end of 2001 to some 1,250,000 units, including the dedicated industrial robots installed in Japan. Many of the early robots, however, have by now been taken out of service. The stock of industrial robots in actual operation is therefore lower. UNECE and IFR estimate the: “total worldwide stock of operational industrial robots at the end of 2001 between a minimum of 757,000 units and a possible maximum of 1,020,000 units.”

The minimum figure above is derived on the assumption that the average length of service life is 12 years. A UNECE/IFR pilot study has indicated that the average service life might in fact be as long as 15 years, which would result in a worldwide stock of 1,020,000 units.

Forecasts for 2002-2005

Sales projected to increase by an average of 7.5 per cent per year

The world market for industrial robots is projected to increase from 78,000 units in 2001 to just over 104,000 in 2005 when including all types of industrial robots in Japan and the Republic of Korea, or by a yearly average of 7.5 per cent. Excluding Japan and the Republic of Korea, worldwide sales of multipurpose industrial robots are forecast to increase from almost 46,000 units to 62,000 units by 2005, an average yearly increase of 8 per cent.

Sales in Japan expected to show slow recovery…

Growth in robot investment in Japan will be spurred by an increasing demand for replacement investment. Between 2001 and 2005, sales are projected to increase from 28,000 units to about 36,000 units, which, bearing in mind the slump of 2001, is a rather modest recovery.

Steady growth in Europe and in North America

The robot market in the European Union is expected to grow from 30,500 units in 2001 to 42,000 units in 2005. In North America, the market is estimated to grow by an average annual rate of 7 per cent, which implies that the market will reach just over 14,000 units in 2005.

The operational stock of industrial robots continues to grow, except in Japan

In terms of units, it is estimated that the worldwide stock of operational industrial robots will increase from almost 757,000 units at the end of 2001 to 965,000 at the end of 2005.

The year 1997 was the peak one for the Japanese robot stock, when it reached 413,000 units, including all types of industrial robots. By 2001 end, it had fallen to 361,000 units and is projected to fall to 349,000 units in 2003, after which it will start to increase, reaching 352,000 in 2005.

Excluding Japan and the Republic of Korea, the remaining world operational stock of multipurpose industrial robots is forecast to increase from 354,000 units to 557,000 units in the period 2001–2005, an average yearly increase of 12 per cent.

In the United States, the operational stock of multipurpose industrial robots is forecast to reach 131,000 units in 2005. The projection for the European Union is 321,000 units, of which 134,000 in Germany; 67,000 in Italy; 36,000 in France; and 21,000 in the United Kingdom (see Figure 2).

Results in the first half of 2002

Looking at the first half of 2002, the UNECE/IFR quarterly survey on order intake of industrial robots, which includes most of the world’s largest companies, showed that worldwide order intake decreased by 7 per cent, compared with the same period in 2001. This figure, however, hides some major differences between regions: “Order intake of industrial robots in the first half of 2002 compared with the same period in 2001: North America +2 per cent, Europe 15 per cent, Asia +8 per cent and World total 7 per cent.”

Figure 2 Service robots for professional use. Stock at the end of 2001 and projected installations in 2002-2005

Growth in robot investment is spurred by plummeting robot prices but price decreases are starting to level off…

Prices of industrial robots, expressed in constant 1990 US dollars, fell from an index 100 to 56 in the period 1990-2001, without taking into account that robots installed in 2001 had a much higher performance than those installed in 1990 (see Figure 1). When taking into account quality changes, it was estimated that the index would have fallen to 25. In other words, an average robot sold in 2001 would have cost only a fourth of what a robot, with the same performance, would have cost in 1990, if it had been possible to produce such a robot in that year.

In the same time, the index of labour compensation in the American business sector increased from 100 to 152 (see Figure 1). This implies that the relative prices of robots fell sharply in the period 1990-2001.

Service robots for professional use, installations up to the end of 2001

Of the total number of units of service robots for professional use installed up to the end of 2001, underwater robots with their 3,300 units accounted for 27 per cent (see Figure 2). Thereafter, followed demolition robots with 20 per cent and medical robots with 15 per cent. Laboratory robots had a share of 9 per cent while agriculture robots, mainly robot milking systems, made up 6 per cent. Cleaning robots had a share of just over 2 per cent.

As the unit values differ very significantly between various application areas – from some hundreds of thousands of dollars for underwater robots and medical robots to a few thousand dollars for laboratory robots or a few hundred dollars for domestic or entertainment robots – market data, expressed in terms of value in US dollars, might differ quite substantially from market data expressed in number of units.

Projections for the period 2002-2005, service robots for professional use

Turning to the projections for the period 2002-2005, the stock is forecast to increase by some 25,000 units. Application areas with strong growth are medical robots with some 6,000 new robots being added, underwater robots (3,000), surveillance and security robots (1,800), refuelling robots (1,100) and robotic systems for milking (1,000) (Plate 1).

Plate 1

The publication World Robotics 2002 – Statistics, Market Analysis, Forecasts, Case Studies and Profitability of Robot Investment is available, quoting Sales No. GV.E.02.0.8 or ISBN No. 92-1-101047-0, through the usual United Nations sales agents in various countries or from the United Nations Office at Geneva (see address below), priced at US$120:

Sales and Marketing Section, United Nations, Palais des Nations, CH - 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland. Tel.: +41(0)22 917 26 06 / 26 13; Fax: +41(0)22 917 00 27; E-mail: unpubli@unog.ch

For more information about the publication, please contact: Mr. Jan Karlsson, Statistical Division, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), Palais des Nations, CH - 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland. Tel.: +41(0)22 917 32 85; Fax: +41(0)22 917 00 40; E-mail: jan.karlsson@unece.org or International Federation of Robotics (IFR), Box 5506, S - 114 85 Stockholm, Sweden. Tel.: (+ 46 8) 782 08 43; Fax: (+ 46 8) 660 33 78; E-mail: ifr@vi.se