World survey reports boom in robot investment

Citation

(2001), "World survey reports boom in robot investment", Industrial Robot, Vol. 28 No. 1. https://doi.org/10.1108/ir.2001.04928aab.013

World survey reports boom in robot investment

World survey reports boom in robot investment

By 2003 there will be nearly 900,000 multi-purpose robots in use worldwide compared with 750,000 today, according to World Robotics 2000, a survey running to 350 pages published by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe in co-operation with the International Federation of Robotics. Multi-purpose robots are those which may be reprogrammed easily to perform another task, as distinct from dedicated robots built into automated systems.

The scene was set between 1998 and 1999, during which time the world market for industrial robots increased by 15 per cent, mainly as a result of a sharp upturn in sales in the USA (+38 per cent) and the European Union (+16 per cent). The highest growth was recorded in France with almost 90 per cent over the 1998 level. "Never before have the European Union and the USA invested in so many industrial robots in a single year", says Mike Wilson of Meta Vision Systems, chairman of the International Federation of Robotics. "Since 1994, annual robot investment has doubled."

Activity in the Far East is slower. After a small decline the previous year, there was hesitant recovery in Japan (+5 per cent) where the investment climate for automation equipment is still depressed. Even allowing for a surge of 70 per cent in investment in the Republic of Korea, overall sales in the region are still less than half of the record levels achieved in 1995-1997, before the Asian economic crisis.

Worldwide the boom continues. The first half of 2000 shows an annual growth rate of 12 per cent, with Europe now heading the investment league. The gap between robot usage in EC countries compared with Japan and the USA is narrowing.

Growth in robot investment has been spurred by plummeting robot prices and radically improved performance. The price of an average robot in 1999 was one-fifth the 1990 cost of an equivalent robot (see Figure 1). Consequently, it is usual these days to hear of payback times of one to two years. At the same time, the economic life of a robot (except in car production lines) is from 12 to 16 years, so the competitiveness of robot users is significantly enhanced.

Figure 1 Price index of industrial robots in the USA, with and without quality adjustment, and index of labour compensation in the US business sector

Other positive factors are also at work. Robots are becoming more sophisticated and their rapidly improving performance is opening up a range of new applications. In some countries there is a shortage of industrial labour, driving up investment in robotics. With present demographic trends, this shortage will be even more pronounced in years to come, which will further stimulate investment in robots.

"Noone should contemplate heavy and repetitive lifting by hand these days when robots can improve both working conditions and productivity", continues Mike Wilson. "There are many industries that should move towards automation, particularly in view of the ever more stringent legislation in most industrialised countries restricting manual handling in the workplace."

Another driving force behind robotisation is the requirement that components and sub-assemblies must be of high and consistent quality, which in many cases can only be achieved by automation.

So how many robots are actually out there working in industry? Since industrial robots were introduced at the end of the 1960s, some 1,100,000 units were sold up to the end of 1999. Many early robots have been taken out of service, however, so the number of robots in operation is lower. The survey authors estimate that the total worldwide stock at the end of 1999 was 743,000 units. By the end of 2003, the figure is predicted to be 892,000 (see Figure 2).

Figure 2 Estimated operational stock of multipurpose industrial robots 1994-1999 and forecasts 2000-2003

Robots in the motor vehicle industry is another key statistic. The numbers in use per capita are five to ten times higher than the densities in other manufacturing industries. Counting all types of robots in Japan, the density in 1999 in the motor vehicle industry was about 1,700 – one for every six production workers. For other countries the density varied between 390 in the UK and 760 in Italy (see Figure 3).

Figure 3 Number of robots per 10,000 production workers in the motor vehicle industry, 1993 and 1999

Service robots for professional use are to be found mainly in the medical and underwater sectors, which have 40 per cent of the market each by value. Domestic uses, including lawn mowing, account for almost half of the 6,600 units installed up to the end of 1999. Owing to their low unit value, domestic robots represent a very small proportion of the overall market (1 per cent).

In the period 2000-2003, the stock of service robots is forecast to increase dramatically by 49,400 units, of which 40,000 will be domestic robots (excluding vacuum cleaning robots) and 5,000 will be medical robots. Commercialisation of robots for vacuum cleaning at the end of 2000 is likely to change considerably the domestic share of the service robot market. Provided that the price is right, it is possible that by 2003 more than a quarter of million units could be sold in this sector alone, dwarfing the remainder of the market.

Robots for disabled and handicapped people have not yet taken off, despite the potential with respect to both need and existing technology. In the longer term, say in the next ten years, the use of robots for assisting disabled and handicapped people is certain to be a key area. Research institutions are currently focusing on developing prototypes.

The creation of "intelligent homes", in which various types of equipment in the kitchen and elsewhere are connected and controlled by personal computers or mobile phones, will greatly facilitate the introduction of domestic service robots in the years to come.

For further information, please contact: Kerstin Teglöf Delgado, International Federation of Robotics, PO Box 5510, SE-114 85 Stockholm, Sweden. Tel: +46 8 782 0843; Fax: +46 8 660 3378; e-mail: kerstin.delgado@vi.se