Significance, gaps, and prospects of foresight – lessons from Indonesia

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore some significance, gaps and prospects of foresight both for and as policy in planning and decision-making, as well as an instrument for enhancing the capacity of planners and decision makers in Indonesia.

Design/methodology/approach

This study deploys a case study method deriving from the authors’ experience in conducting a series of foresight workshops and trainings in Indonesia. The workshops, which involved government officials from the Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas) and the Coordinating Ministry of Investment and Maritime Affairs (KemenkoMarves), were designed with two agendas. First, to apply foresight in the actual process of policy cascading for the formulation of the national long and mid-term development plan (Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Panjang Nasional (RPJPN) and Rencana embangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional (RPJMN)). Second, from the process itself, to improve the capacity of government officials in decision-making by using a more explorative method of planning.

Findings

The result shows that foresight proves to be a useful method that enables a more systematic exploration of events, trends and eventually drivers with which plausible future scenarios could be explored, thus leading to more adaptive policies. With regard to the prospect, foresight is seen as a more inclusive and participatory-based approach, which embraces a robust democratised process of policy construction. However, the practice is also challenging in its nature. Government officials have been prolongedly familiar with positivistic methods, hence considering the application of foresight as an endeavour of a new academic culture of planning, which requires them more time, resources and pondering.

Research limitations/implications

Considering the methodological prospect and the intrinsic uncertainty of the future, this paper argues the need to nurture planners and decision makers to have the capacity to design more adaptive policies as offered by explorative methods like foresight. Consequently, this is also a call for the Indonesian Government to recognise the significance of the method and to provide relevant institutional support for wider practice, or exploration at the least. However, as a note of limitation, the workshops were conducted only with government officials, thus the result should only represent the point of view of the public sector.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the progress of foresight studies by presenting an original case study of the practice in Indonesia. The foresight workshops were facilitated by the authors, thus the insights brought in this paper derive from the first-hand experience of the authors. Moreover, as foresight is considered as a new endeavour in Indonesia, this paper helps provide a key novelty unfolding the reliability and prospect of foresight as an instrument for planning and decision-making.

Citation

Nugroho, Y., Adrianto, D.W., Susilo, J., Dewi, C.R., Usmani, M.L., Esti, K., Amalia, M., Cahyowidiarso, Y.B. and Rasunnah, A.N.M. (2024), "Significance, gaps, and prospects of foresight – lessons from Indonesia", Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-11-2023-0229