Asymmetric effect of extreme changes in the exchange rate volatility on the US imports: Evidence from multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model

Abstract

Purpose

Recent literature has shifted to examining whether exchange rate volatility symmetrically or asymmetrically affects the trade flows. This study aims to extend the existing literature by examining the effects of extremely large to extremely small changes in exchange rate volatility series on the US imports from Brazil, India, Mexico and South Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

For examining the effects of extreme changes, multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (MTNARDL) model is used and the exchange rate volatility series is divided into quintiles and deciles. It helps to examine the effects of each quintile/decile of exchange rate volatility series on the US imports.

Findings

Findings indicate that the effects of extremely large changes in the exchange rate volatility series significantly differ from the effects of extremely small changes in the exchange rate volatility series on the US imports.

Practical implications

The findings of this study are very important. These findings help to consider the effect of extreme changes before devising policies related to trade flows.

Originality/value

This study mainly focuses on US imports from Brazil, India, Mexico and South Africa. In addition, this study extends the existing literature by using a novel methodology called MTNARDL model.

Citation

Chang, B.H., Rajput, S.K.O., Bhutto, N.A. and Abro, Z. (2020), "Asymmetric effect of extreme changes in the exchange rate volatility on the US imports: Evidence from multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model", Studies in Economics and Finance, Vol. 37 No. 2, pp. 293-309. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-03-2019-0122