Measuring the Risk of COVID-19 Spread via the US Air Transportation Network

Abstract

Given that a prerequisite for COVID-19 transmission is the interaction between individuals, it is reasonable to suspect that transportation networks may have contributed to the spread of COVID-19. This study uses the air transportation network to quantify the risk of COVID-19 spread in the United States. The proposed model is applied at the county level and identifies the risk of importing COVID-19-infected passengers into a given county. We also undertake an examination of the factors influencing the spread of COVID-19 in relation to air travel. Utilizing an extensive dataset encompassing various socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare-related variables, our results indicate a positive relationship between these factors and the relative risk of COVID-19 spread, highlighting the pronounced impact of population density, air travel volume, and larger household sizes on increasing travel-related risk. Conversely, greater healthcare capacity, particularly in terms of hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds, is associated with reduced risk. We provide estimates of expected relative risk for each county and a ranking that can be useful for informing public health policies to stem the spread of the virus by devoting resources such as screening and enhanced travel protocols to airports located in at-risk counties.

Citation

Yimga, J. (2024), "Measuring the Risk of COVID-19 Spread via the US Air Transportation Network", McCarthy, P.S. (Ed.) Airlines and the COVID-19 Pandemic (Advances in Airline Economics, Vol. 11), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 175-213. https://doi.org/10.1108/S2212-160920240000011008