Not All Quiet on the Middle Eastern Fronts

Abstract

In this chapter, I explain the key trends in defense spending and arms procurement in the Middle East and test whether those trends were subject to Louis F. Richardson's action-reaction model. I assessed the “guns-versus-butter” trade-off and the future prospects for peace in the region in light of these trends. I explained the danger of transferring weapons knowledge and technology to non-state actors in the Middle East. I investigate the trend in defense spending based on Richardson's action-reaction model by considering rival pairs in each subregion: Algeria–Morocco in North Africa; Egypt–Israel, Jordan–Israel, and Syria–Israel in the frontline states; United Arab Emirates–Iran in the Arab–Persian Gulf; and Pakistan–India in the Indian subcontinent. I used ordinary least squares (OLS) method in testing those dyads. I used military expenditure data from the SIPRI Yearbook: World Armament and Disarmament published annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. I conclude the study with policy implications and recommendations for achieving permanent peace in the region.

Citation

Attar, R.A. (2011), "Not All Quiet on the Middle Eastern Fronts", Chatterji, M., Gopal, D. and Singh, S. (Ed.) Governance, Development and Conflict (Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development, Vol. 18), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 213-242. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1572-8323(2011)0000018012