Assessing a Modification to Croston's Method to Incorporate a Seasonal Component

Abstract

One aspect of forecasting intermittent demand for slow-moving inventory that has not been investigated to any depth in the literature is seasonality. This is due in part to the reliability of computed seasonal indexes when many of the periods have zero demand. This chapter proposes an innovative approach which adapts Croston's (1970) method to data with a multiplicative seasonal component. Adaptations of Croston's (1970) method are popular in the literature. This method is one of the most popular techniques to forecast items with intermittent demand. A simulation is conducted to examine the effectiveness of the proposed technique extending Croston's (1970) method to incorporate seasonality.

Citation

Lindsey, M. and Pavur, R. (2013), "Assessing a Modification to Croston's Method to Incorporate a Seasonal Component", Lawrence, K.D. and Klimberg, R.K. (Ed.) Advances in Business and Management Forecasting (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, Vol. 9), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 185-195. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-4070(2013)0000009015