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Local Climate Sensitivity: What Can Time Series of Distributions Reveal About Spatial Heterogeneity of Climate Change?

J. Isaac Miller (Department of Economics, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri, USA)

Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications

ISBN: 978-1-83753-213-1, eISBN: 978-1-83753-212-4

Publication date: 24 April 2023

Abstract

Transient climate sensitivity relates total climate forcings from anthropogenic and other sources to surface temperature. Global transient climate sensitivity is well studied, as are the related concepts of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR), but spatially disaggregated local climate sensitivity (LCS) is less so. An energy balance model (EBM) and an easily implemented semiparametric statistical approach are proposed to estimate LCS using the historical record and to assess its contribution to global transient climate sensitivity. Results suggest that areas dominated by ocean tend to import energy, they are relatively more sensitive to forcings, but they warm more slowly than areas dominated by land. Economic implications are discussed.

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Acknowledgements

Acknowledgments

I appreciate insightful comments from Myles Allen, William A. (Buz) Brock, Yoosoon Chang, David Hendry, Joon Park, and participants of the 2016 Conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (Aarhus), and the 2016 International Conference of Computational and Financial Econometrics (Seville), 2017 North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society (Washington University in St. Louis), the 2017 Midwest Econometrics Group Meeting (Texas A&M), and a colloquium at the University of Missouri. I am grateful to Kyungsik Nam, whose dissertation research provided some new insights into estimating the semiparametric cointegrating models in the paper. All errors are mine.

Citation

Miller, J.I. (2023), "Local Climate Sensitivity: What Can Time Series of Distributions Reveal About Spatial Heterogeneity of Climate Change?", Chang, Y., Lee, S. and Miller, J.I. (Ed.) Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 45B), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 319-350. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0731-90532023000045B014

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited