The effect of terror attacks on crime

Abstract

Purpose

Previous research has shown that terror attacks affect a variety of outcomes. However, one outcome that has remained relatively neglected is crime. In the current study we examine the immediate effect of terrorism on crime, and discuss several behavioral mechanisms that might explain this effect.

Design/methodology/approach

We use data from 190 Israeli localities over 12 years (1999–2011). Applying a fixed-effects Poisson regression model, we assess the effect of terror attacks on recorded crimes of three types – property, domestic violence, and fraud – on the days following the attack. We also examine whether the effect is conditioned on geographical proximity to the attack.

Findings

We find the occurrence of terror attacks has a significant and negative effect on recorded cases of the three crime types. This effect grows stronger as geographical proximity to the attack increases.

Originality/value

Our results suggest that terrorism has an immediate negative effect on crime. This effect might be explained by changes in the behavior of police officers, offenders, and citizens.

Citation

Itskovich, E., Baron, O.T., Factor, R. and Perry, S. (2024), "The effect of terror attacks on crime", Policing: An International Journal, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/PIJPSM-03-2024-0037