Relations between Georgia and Abkhazia will improve

Significance

On September 29, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow was ready to help Georgia normalise relations with the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, Moscow’s offer came with an uncomfortable condition for Tbilisi: recognition of the separatist regions as equal partners. Russia's proposal follows its increasing use of economic pressure on Abkhazia to force it to comply with Moscow’s preferred policies.

Impacts

• Relations between Georgia and the United States and EU will remain tense following Georgian Dream's disputed October election victory.
• The controversial nature of the October parliamentary election will translate into continued political instability in Georgia.
• Russia will continue to use the South Caucasus as a conduit for importing Western goods and technology.