Ruling parties will likely form next Irish government

Significance

FG’s partner in the outgoing coalition, Fianna Fail (FF), is polling relatively well, a few percentage points behind FG. Support for the left-wing opposition Sinn Fein (SF) has halved, seemingly due to internal party crises and its position on immigration.

Impacts

• If SF performs poorly in the election, leader Mary Lou McDonald’s position will come under threat.
• Whatever the election outcome, the next government will probably adopt a tougher stance on immigration.
• The Irish economy is particularly vulnerable to US President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist economic agenda.