Cameroon's military may play key succession role

Significance

In this context, the position of the military, or factions within it, will be important. Its role in upholding a constitutional transfer of power or subverting it, either on its own behalf or in support of a new civilian leadership, could have profound consequences for the country’s future political trajectory.

Impacts

• Inter-generational conflicts within the military raise the risk of a junior officers' coup in the post-Biya era.
• A military-led government might adopt a harsher stance on the Anglophone separatist conflict, potentially intensifying resistance.
• The military’s ageing leadership may negatively impact its fighting capacities.
• Military involvement in a political transition could divert resources from counter-jihadist operations.