Major attack by Iran on Israel unlikely in short term

Significance

Iran is attempting to recalibrate its stance towards Israel as the latter escalates military strikes against Tehran’s ally, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. Tehran has yet to fulfil its promise of massive retaliation against Israel following the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran in July.

Impacts

• Top Iranian officials will continue to use aggressive rhetoric against Israel.
• Iran will unveil more long-range missiles and support arms development in Syria and Yemen.
• International sanctions on Iran are more likely to harden than ease in the short term.