Violence looks likely to endure in southern Mexico

Significance

Criminal violence has been rising in Chiapas in recent years, and the impact of increased security deployments has been dampened by shifting criminal dynamics. Armed groups have a stranglehold over many communities and cross-border displacements suggest a lack of faith in Mexican authorities’ ability to help.

Impacts

• Worsening violence could complicate government efforts to draw investment into southern Mexico.
• Political violence will increase as criminal groups attempt to influence local governance.
• Power struggles within the Sinaloa Cartel could mean more violence if rivals sense an opportunity to go on the offensive in Chiapas.