China’s cooperation on fentanyl will hinge on US ties

Significance

It barred the export of fentanyl -- a major US public health concern -- in 2019, but the trade was subsequently reconfigured, with precursors exported from China to Mexico. US-Chinese cooperation to check that trade was halted in 2022 over a dispute concerning Taiwan.

Impacts

• US lawmakers will maintain a hawkish stance on Beijing’s alleged support of synthetic narcotics, in line with a report released in April.
• The constructive development of bilateral cooperation will be the only way to curb the supply of fentanyl precursors effectively.
• European governments will likely pressure Beijing on the role of Chinese money launderers helping criminal groups and narcotics traffickers.
• Chinese money brokers will continue to profit from Western demand and the post-pandemic surge in capital flight from China.