Canadian Liberals face 'Fortress Toronto' challenges

Significance

Last month’s unexpected by-election defeat in a historically strong Liberal constituency in the Toronto area indicates that few Liberal seats are now safe from a Conservative challenge. Some in the Liberal Party are now asking whether fighting the next election with a new leader might stave off a heavy loss.

Impacts

• The party’s refusal to hold a meeting of all Liberal MPs to discuss the by-election loss will not mute disquiet in the parliamentary party.
• Trudeau will feel pressure at this week’s NATO summit in Washington over what many members see as Canada's poor record on defence spending.
• Three more by-elections are already pending after the resignations of two Liberal MPs and one NDP MP; another Liberal departure is likely.