Ties between Bahrain and Iran will improve slowly

Significance

Bahrain is the only Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) state yet to normalise diplomatic relations with Iran. Their main regional allies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), mended ties with Iran over one year ago. The main barrier is the perception of Bahrain’s ruling family of prolonged Iranian interference in Manama’s domestic affairs.

Impacts

• The election of a new Iranian president is unlikely to alter Tehran’s push for better ties with Bahrain.
• Bilateral trade and investment flows are likely to build only slowly due to the threat of US sanctions.
• Territorial disputes between other GCC states and Iran will occasionally flare up, undermining Manama-Tehran ties.