DUP crisis threatens Northern Irish stability

Significance

Gavin Robinson has taken over on an interim basis, and will probably lead the party into the UK election later this year. The nature of Donaldson’s departure poses significant challenges regarding the stability of the devolved government as well as the future of unionism.

Impacts

• Donaldson’s trial is unlikely to take place before the next UK election.
• Over the next year, SF will likely be the biggest party in both jurisdictions on the island of Ireland.
• The DUP’s influence over UK Brexit policy will be weakened should Labour lead the next government.