Indonesia faces uncertainty but not instability

Significance

Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto remains the front runner in the presidential race, but he will probably need to win a run-off on June 26 to prevail. Jokowi has denied rumours of cabinet divisions over the polls.

Impacts

• Jokowi may be forced to make some changes to his cabinet after February 14, to see his government through to the end of its term in October.
• Tightened security should ensure that the risk of a major militant attack during the election period remains low.
• Prabowo would look to continue much of Jokowi’s agenda if elected.