South Korean politics will be less certain

Significance

Meanwhile, the leader of the opposition and a ruling party lawmaker have been hospitalised after serious assaults (in the former case, politically motivated). There are also concerns the first lady may become a political liability to the conservative ruling People Power Party (PPP).

Impacts

• Similar splits in the recent past have been short-lived, with a broadly two-party line-up soon re-coalescing; the same may happen this time.
• The polls are marked by uncertainty given the main parties’ low popularity, undecided voters and additional parties; low turn-out is likely.
• Each of the two defectors appeals to a key regional or age-based demographic; their conflicting ideologies would destabilise any alliance.
• Unless the PPP wins a majority, President Yoon Suk-yeol will remain unable to pass legislation until his term ends in May 2027.