Myanmar junta will hone divide-and-rule strategy

Significance

The junta’s battlefield opponents include NUG-aligned People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) that have fought the military for decades, but there is no united resistance front. Meanwhile, the state of emergency declared after the February 2021 coup remains in place.

Impacts

• The resistance will remain divided, but many of the groups within it will expand their structural capacities and firepower.
• The junta’s inability to control key border regions will hamper trade with neighbours, especially India and Thailand.
• The economy is unlikely to recover to pre-coup levels in the medium term at least, because of the violence and political uncertainty.