Instability will rise ahead of Argentine elections

Significance

Apart from mounting frustration and economic pain, there is a marked shift in public opinion away from Vice-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK). Much remains unclear, including the extent of pre-election economic deterioration, the possibility of civil unrest and the depth of public appetite for exploding the existing political system.

Impacts

• Like last year’s attack on CFK, support for Milei suggests wide disbelief in the ability of political channels to address mounting problems.
• The next government will face an unusually short honeymoon and a range of intractable problems that limit any chance of rapid successes.
• An unsuccessful Milei government would raise longer-term questions about stability and governability in a political vacuum.
• Month-on-month inflation in August may have reached double digits following the post-PASO devaluation, stoking unrest.