Mexico’s opposition may prove competitive in election

Significance

Both the opposition ‘Broad Front for Mexico’ (FAM) coalition, which includes the PAN, and the ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena)-led ‘Together We’ll Make History’ (JHH) coalition have begun de-facto candidate campaigning, long before the formal November start date.

Impacts

• Polarising rhetoric could increase the likelihood of political violence as the elections approach.
• If the INE is unable to regulate the process effectively, the elections could end up in the courts.
• With the PRI now holding the smallest benches in both chambers of Congress, its continued relevance relies on the FAM.
• The Citizen Movement candidate, independent of the FAM, will not win the presidency, but could have a decisive impact on voting patterns.