Regional engagement with Myanmar will steadily grow

Significance

ASEAN continues to champion its ‘Five-Point Consensus’ (5PC) plan for easing the country’s tensions, but in parallel, key players within the group -- namely Indonesia and Malaysia -- appear keen to see what might be achieved through a more pragmatic approach towards the junta. Other countries in the neighbourhood are accommodative of the junta, even supportive.

Impacts

• Naypyidaw will rely on Chinese and Indian engagement to help cushion the impact of Western sanctions targeting the military.
• Bangkok will keep engaging with the junta if parties aligned with the Thai military become part of Thailand’s next governing coalition.
• Divisions within ASEAN over the Myanmar situation will increase, despite the rhetoric of preserving unity on the matter.