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Myanmar junta may weaken but will not make concessions

Content type:: Expert Briefings
Location:: MYANMAR
Keywords associated with this article:: Geographic: Myanmar AP ASEAN Cambodia China IMF-World Bank Japan Malaysia Russia Singapore Thailand United Nations

Topical: economy international relations politics social civil war coup foreign policy government growth military opposition regional summit banking bonds election ethnic exchange rate foreign investment foreign trade investment monetary regulation sanctions
ISSN:: 2633-304X
Citation:: Oxford Analytica (2022), "Myanmar junta may weaken but will not make concessions", Expert Briefings.
https://doi.org/10.1108/OXAN-DB273165

Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Significance

ASEAN’s ‘Five-Point Consensus’ plan to ease the fallout from the 2021 coup shows no signs of making progress, and Cambodia -- the group’s 2022 chair -- has stopped advocating closer engagement with the military government. Meanwhile, the anti-junta National Unity Government (NUG) claims it controls the majority of Myanmar’s territory.

Impacts

The junta will be increasingly dependent on China and Russia for arms, trade and investment.
Many countries will increase engagement with the NUG but none will give it diplomatic recognition, wary of being drawn into a proxy war.
Fighting between the junta and NUG will intensify.

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Significance

Impacts

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