Somali security strategy ignores old lessons

Significance

When his latest term started, the president hinted that he might consider negotiations with al-Shabaab, and he still says he remains open to this. However, following a major jihadist attack in August, he has promised “all-out war” on the group.

Impacts

• Frosty relations with regional leaders may undermine any substantive security architecture agreements.
• Al-Shabaab will maintain its pace of attacks to weaken Hassan Sheikh’s credibility.
• Continued al-Shabaab abuses against civilians despite an impending famine will hurt its reputation and entrench opposition to it.