Ukraine war unlikely to transform EU-UK security ties

Significance

It has required a degree of EU-UK coordination, especially to facilitate the implementation of sanctions imposed on Russia’s economy, leadership and regime-supporting elite. However, it has not generated a broader reset in the formal EU-UK security and defence relationship.

Impacts

• Ending the dispute over the Northern Ireland protocol would significantly alter the mood of EU-UK relations.
• Fiscal pressures could reduce countries’ appetite for defence investment; this may encourage further institutional integration in the EU.
• Trade uncertainty could see European defence companies, such as Airbus, more reluctant to invest in the United Kingdom.