Canada polls should return Ontario government

Significance

Premier Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservative (PC) party appear on course to win a second term as other parties fail to resonate with the electorate. Although provincial and federal politics are separate, the outcome may offer an indication of wider voter sentiment beyond Ontario.

Impacts

• Ford will maintain short-term opposition to federally mandated carbon pricing but will move towards meeting its requirements.
• The Liberals are likely to displace the Ontario New Democratic Party as the official opposition, triggering a leadership race in the latter.
• Carbon emissions from Ontario’s electricity grid will spike as an important nuclear power plant is decommissioned.
• Ford must deal with new manufacturing and industrial projects going to jurisdictions with cleaner electricity.