Turkey can transit only some more gas to Europe

Significance

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe urgently needs new supplies. Turkey has been proposed as a transit route for gas from Middle Eastern and Caspian sources, but attention has focused on the potential reserves’ size, not what gas could become available in the short term.

Impacts

• There will be further moves to normalise relations between the West and Iran.
• Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government may agree to develop and export gas from the region.
• Turkey, Greece and Cyprus will be pressured towards agreements on delineating East Mediterranean maritime borders.