Chaotic Somali elections approach their final phase

Significance

Madobe defeated Hassan Abdinur, the preferred candidate of President Mohamed Abdullahi ‘Farmajo’, by 163 votes to 98, underscoring the challenges Farmajo may face in securing re-election by parliament. However, when that vote will take place remains unclear, as the chaos of the parliamentary polls is not yet entirely over.

Impacts

• Risks of political violence will grow unless Somali leaders can quickly bring the electoral crisis to an end.
• Battles between the president and prime minister for control of security and electoral institutions will persist until the polls are over.
• Moving the elections to the Halane military camp should mitigate security risks but will not eliminate them.