Myanmar conflict will be protracted

Significance

Attacks by anti-junta People's Defence Forces (PDFs), which operate largely autonomously from each other, are taking an increasing toll on the army. Western powers are ramping up sanctions on the military and military-linked businesses while they and other external players try to mitigate the deepening humanitarian crisis.

Impacts

• Hardship will increase as electricity shortages persist and fuel and food costs rise.
• Overseas firms choosing to leave will come under pressure to do so responsibly while those remaining will face growing reputational risk.
• The US determination that the Myanmar military committed genocide against the Rohingya people may prompt further targeted sanctions.