Shallow reforms may ensure more Somali poll disputes

Significance

The conference was convened following electoral disputes that erupted into a standoff between President Mohammed Abdullahi ‘Farmajo’ and Prime Minister Mohammed Hussein Roble, after Roble tried to reconstitute allegedly pro-Farmajo electoral bodies while Farmajo tried to suspend Roble based on allegations of corruption and overstepping his authority.

Impacts

• The February 25 deadline to complete the polls is likely to be missed.
• Some regions will struggle to identify a second electoral venue due to logistical and political challenges.
• The accord will reduce diplomatic pressure on Farmajo, who may continue to stifle his domestic opponents.
• The opposition has tried to organise anti-Farmajo protests in Mogadishu but the organisers appear to want to avoid major violence.