Seoul’s next leader will be a non-centrist outsider

Significance

Neither is from their party’s mainstream, and has never been elected as a lawmaker. The conservative, Yoon Seok-youl, is a former prosecutor general. The liberal, Lee Jae-myung, was a provincial governor until late October. Whoever wins will succeed Moon Jae-in on May 9 for a single five-year term, until 2027.

Impacts

• Even if Yoon wins, the liberals will control the legislature until at least April 2024 and will do their best to block his initiatives.
• The election will be fought mainly on domestic issues; if foreign policy becomes salient, this will benefit the pro-US, Japan-friendly Yoon.
• Lee's universal basic income proposal would make South Korea the first major economy to adopt such a policy.