EU-UK relations enter a decisive period

Significance

The proposals are ambitious and bring both sides closer on some important issues, such as agrifood trade and customs paperwork. However, the proposals ignore UK demands to remove European Court of Justice (ECJ) oversight in Northern Ireland. This issue threatens to thwart a compromise.

Impacts

• UK triggering of Article 16 would put pressure on Dublin to stop Irish businesses from buying goods from Northern Ireland.
• The UK government will seek to downplay tensions with the EU over the NIP until after the UN climate change conference in Glasgow.
• UK regulatory divergence will be a source of tension for EU-UK ties, as London will want Northern Ireland to follow the UK direction.
• If the NIP is fully implemented, Northern Ireland could become one of the most competitive regions in the United Kingdom.