Swaziland faces prolonged period of instability

Significance

One person was shot in the head and left in critical condition. The opposition movement has grown dramatically this year following the death in late May of law student Thabani Nkomonye in police custody, which sparked mass protests.

Impacts

• Failure to resolve the crisis could lead to increasingly radical and more violent strategies by pro-democracy protesters.
• The persistence of mass opposition may encourage Mswati to escalate repression, moving the country closer to a police state.
• The United States is unlikely to be willing to intervene directly without the support of powerful regional players such as South Africa.