Primaries will launch tense Argentine electoral cycle

Significance

The primaries, pushed back from this month to September 12, will generate few surprises but offer an opportunity to gauge the relative support of each coalition ahead of the midterm elections in which half of the 257-seat Lower House and 24 of 54 Senate seats will be contested.

Impacts

• The next presidential contest may well be between two candidates whose rejection rates far outweigh their approval.
• The incumbent is unlikely to be the government’s presidential candidate in 2023.
• Government moderates, including the president, will be blamed for a poor election result and for any subsequent loss of support.