Myanmar military will retain edge over key opponent

Significance

The military regime continues to crack down on anti-coup protesters. The National Unity Government (NUG) -- a parallel administration established by ousted lawmakers and other protest leaders -- has formed a People’s Defence Force (PDF) and seeks the support of ethnically based insurgents involved in long-running conflicts with the military.

Impacts

• Rising violence will make it harder for Myanmar to contain its upsurge in COVID-19 cases.
• Cross-border drug trafficking will increase as the military eases up on local cartels in return for political support.
• Western powers will ramp up sanctions on the military while continuing to strive to limit the impact of these measures on wider society.