Internal security will drive Bahrain’s foreign policy

Significance

Ten years after it experienced mass protests during the 2011 Arab uprisings, Manama remains deeply concerned about the potential threat from a Shia-led opposition -- and its attraction of foreign support. It is particularly troubled by links to Tehran, which it sees as the foremost threat to its own internal stability.

Impacts

• If top Shia religious leader Sheikh Isa Qassim, in poor health, were to die, that could lead to a flare-up of anti-government sentiment.
• Bahrain will work with Saudi Arabia to curb Iran’s influence in Iraq, where clerics have close ideological links with Bahrain’s Shia.
• The Saudi crown prince might push for further Bahraini outreach to Israel, as a precedent he could follow when conditions allow.